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Koon Yew Yin's Blog

Author: Koon Yew Yin   |   Latest post: Fri, 30 Oct 2020, 8:56 AM

 

South Korean ex-president Lee ordered back to prison for 17 years - Koon Yew Yin

Author: Koon Yew Yin   |  Publish date: Fri, 30 Oct 2020, 8:56 AM


Former South Korean president Lee Myung-bak was ordered back to prison on Thursday (Oct 29) as the country's Supreme Court upheld a 17-year jail term for bribery and embezzlement offences.

The conservative Lee, who served as president from 2008 to 2013, had been out on bail awaiting the ruling and was not in court for the decision, but police were seen at his Seoul home to take him away, according to report.

 

The ruling is not subject to further appeal and at age 78 means Lee is likely to die in prison unless he receives a presidential pardon.

All four of South Korea's living former presidents are either behind bars or have served jail terms - often as a result of investigations begun under successors who are political rivals.

Lee was first convicted of embezzlement and accepting bribes in late 2018 and jailed. An appeals court later increased his sentence to 17 years but granted him bail pending a further appeal to the nation's highest court.

The Supreme Court on Thursday upheld his conviction for embezzling 25.2 billion won (US$22 million) and accepting bribes totalling 9.4 billion won, as well as the 17-year sentence.

Lee is also subject to a 13-billion-won fine and must forfeit assets of 5.7 billion won.

"There was no legal fallacy in the appellate court's ruling on bribery and embezzlement," the Supreme Court said in a statement.

Lee's conservative successor Park Geun-hye is currently serving 20 years in jail for bribery and abuse of power after being ousted in 2017 over a corruption scandal that prompted massive street protests.

Another former leader, the liberal Roh Moo-hyun, took his own life after being questioned in a corruption probe involving his family - an inquiry that took place during Lee's presidency.

Roh was the political mentor of incumbent President Moon Jae-in, who served in the Blue House throughout Roh's presidency, including a year as his chief of staff.

Do you know why Najib is still free?

 

Supermax: price fluctuation can be misleading - Koon Yew Yin

Author: Koon Yew Yin   |  Publish date: Thu, 29 Oct 2020, 12:01 PM


The chart below shows that the price has been moving up and down like a yoyo in the last 5 trading days. Yesterday instead of snapping up more shares in Supermax after it posted a stellar set of quarterly earnings, more investors rushed to sell to depress the price by 33 sen per share. 

 

Many investors are so confused and did not know what to do. Some novice even sold their holdings and thought they were so clever. Some short-term day traders bought and sold to make some small sums of money. But statistics shows that 80% are losers, 10% break even and only 10% of the people are winners in the stock market. Day traders are in the 80% group.

In fact, under the current Covid 19 pandemic, the number of losers can even more than 80% because the pandemic is affecting everyone’s movement and all the listed companies except medical gloves and medical products for the virus prevention. Out of 1,100 listed companies, the total number of glove stocks and medical products can be counted with your fingers. That is why all the Investment Banks are losers because they have to hold many stocks to spread their   investment risk. Investors who do not have glove stocks in their portfolio should get their head examined and those who want to sell must be really stupid.   

The chart below shows that Supermax was selling at Rm 70 sen on 23 March and closed yesterday at Rm 9.45, an increase of 13.5 times or 1,350% in the last 7 months.

 

As soon as I saw the company announced its historical best profit I revised my target price as follows:-

1st quarter ending Sept EPS 30.58 sen, an increase of 100% from the previous quarter.

If I assume it can increase its profit by 25% for each of the remaining 3 quarters for the financial year, its EPS for each of the 3 quarters will be:-

2nd quarter EPS will be 37.5 sen 

3rd quarter EPS will be 46.88 sen

4th quarter EPS will be 58.60 sen

Total EPS Rm 1.736 for the year. Based on P/E 15, my target price is Rm 26.00.

A few days ago, the company published a very comprehensive report. Page 25 is most interesting. It shows that it has the best profit growth rate among all the glove stocks.

 

I believe my target price of Rm 26 is achievable because my assumption that it can increase its profit by 25% in each of the next 3 quarters is quite conservative as you can see how rapidly the company could increase its selling prices as shown on the chart below.   

 

  

 

Labels: SUPERMX

Supermax: my revised target price - Koon Yew Yin

Author: Koon Yew Yin   |  Publish date: Wed, 28 Oct 2020, 9:04 AM


I have been raising my target price for Supermax a few times before. The first time on 22 June, I set my target of Rm 5.25 which was easily achieved. Yesterday, the company made the following announcement: -

Supermax Corp Bhd today posted a record quarterly net profit of RM789.52 million, up almost 32 times from RM24.75 million a year ago, thanks to the continued booming demand for rubber gloves amid the Covid-19 pandemic.

The glovemaker’s bumper earnings for its first quarter ended Sept 30, 2020 came as revenue surged 265.6% to RM1.35 billion, from RM369.94 million a year ago. The group attributed the stellar earnings growth to higher average selling prices for gloves and continuous robust demand.

Separately, Supermax also announced that it is planning for a dual listing on the Singapore Exchange to expand and diversify its shareholder base. The proposed listing down south will also enable the glove maker to pursue growth opportunities by providing additional channels for Supermax to raise funds if needed, said Supermax. However, Supermax noted that the proposed listing is still at an initial stage and the structure of the listing has not been finalised. 

In view of its latest announcement I need to revise my target price.

4th quarter ending June EPS 15.29 sen

1st quarter ending Sept EPS 30.58 sen, an increase of 100% from the previous quarter.

If I assume it can increase its profit by 25% for each of the remaining 3 quarters for the financial year, its EPS for each of the 3 quarters will be:-

2nd quarter EPS will be 37.5 sen 

3rd quarter EPS will be 46.88 sen

4th quarter EPS will be 58.60 sen

Total EPS Rm 1.736 for the year. Based on P/E 15, my target price is Rm 26.00.

I believe my target price of Rm 26 is achievable because my assumption of its 25% increase in quarterly profit is quite conservative. 

All the medical staff will require to wear gloves. 

Many investors are afraid that the approval of the vaccine will reduce the demand for gloves. I wish to point out that to stop the spread of the coronavirus, at least 70% of the people in the world must be vaccinated. It will take a long time to produce so much of vaccine. Moreover, all the medical staff will require to wear gloves to do the vaccination. In fact, more gloves will be required.        

 

 

Labels: SUPERMX

US has 2 Incurable Chronic Diseases - Koon Yew Yin

Author: Koon Yew Yin   |  Publish date: Mon, 26 Oct 2020, 5:21 PM


Currently US has 8.89 million Covid 19 cases and 230,510 deaths. US has the most cases in the world. The daily increase of new cases is spiking higher and higher as shown in the chart. It has the highest number of daily new cases in the world.

 

Although US has the best doctors in the world, yet it cannot stop the spread of the coronavirus. US has been the most powerful nation in the world for too long and President Trump cannot lower his dignity to follow the Chinese proven method of controlling the spread of the virus. He called it the Chinese made flu or kongflu.

China has a total of 91,200 Covid 19 cases and 4,800 deaths. Its daily new cases is only about 20.

The Chinese proven method to prevent the contact and spread of the coronavirus:-  

1 You must wear a face mask whenever you are out of your house. 

2 Practice social distancing; do not stand nearer than 2 meters from another person.

3 Avoid going out. If you have to go out, when you return home immediately you must wash your hands with soap and water.

4 Get yourself tested as soon as you feel feverous and uncomfortable.

5 Never forget life is more important than money. 

The US likes to impose its own will on other nations and like to destroy other nations. The US wants to expands everywhere, dominates people everywhere, and flaunts its strength everywhere, there will eventually be a day of exhaustion.

This clearly demonstrates that the US Government has some chronic diseases that the American society cannot cure. The 2 incurable chronic diseases are:-

1 the people’s excessive claim for freedom and the contradiction between reality and capacity. 

2 deep rooted racial discrimination, racial contradictions caused by the internal mechanism of the American democratic system. 

A few days ago, in Kenosha, Wisconsin, a white police officer fired seven shots in the back of a black man who refused to interrogate, causing a riot in the city. Later, another white teenager shot at the demonstrators on the grounds of the "Protection Office", causing 2 deaths and 1 serious injury. The series of incidents will surely set off a wave of national protests again. It is only three months away from the "Floyd" riot police case in Minnesota. What happened to the United States?

Racial riots have occurred many times in the history of the United States, but the difference is that in the past, they were mostly concentrated in black settlements. Now, through the spread of new media mobile phones, the emotional appeal of the masses and the ability of rapid social mobilization, a little spark instantly burned across the United States.

On the other hand, radical white groups have also increased their cohesion and expansion. Armed militias have swaggered across the streets with automatic rifles, and they are sometimes seen by the police as an aid to maintaining social order. As a result, intensified ethnic riots, radical white armed militias became more arrogant, and President Trump fanned the fire all day, creating internal and external divisions. These phenomena are concurrent, is it just accidental? Or is it a symptom of America's structural decline?

Whether it is history, reality, or logic, the United States seems to be advancing bravely toward the goal of doomsday

 

 

Why do 80% of Investors Lose Money? Koon Yew Yin

Author: Koon Yew Yin   |  Publish date: Fri, 23 Oct 2020, 12:06 PM


From Google you can find that 80% of the investors lose money, 10% break even and only 10% makes money. In fact, under the current Covid 19 pandemic, the number of losers should be more than 80% of the investors. The pandemic is affecting everyone and all the listed companies except glove and medical products for the virus prevention.

There are about 1,100 listed companies in the KLSC. The number of companies involved in the manufacture of gloves and medical products for the virus prevention can be counted with your fingers. There must be tens of millions of investors who have not invested in the glove and medical products for the virus prevention.   

An interesting point about this statistic is that it is not based on geographical region, age, gender or intelligence. Everyone aspires to be in the top 10 percent who consistently make money when trading the stock market, but few are willing to put in the time and effort to achieve this. To be successful in trading the stock market, you need to do what the majority of traders don't do. This may seem like a simplistic view.

All Investment Banks are big losers

Investment Banks and all institutional investors  usually have a large number of stocks in each of their portfolios. As I pointed out earlier, all the listed companies except glove makers and the few medical product makers, are losing money. As a result, all the institutional investors and Investment Banks are losing record amount of money.

Besides Investment Banks and Institutional Investors all the many rich controlling shareholders of listed companies are also losing huge amount of money.

Unlike individual investors, they cannot simply dump their holdings. The more they sell, the more the prices will drop and the more money they will lose. It looks like the richer you are the more money you will lose.  

Currently if you do not have glove stocks, you must be losing money. I suggest you read all my articles carefully to know how to make money from the stock market.

 

Investment decision must be based on fundamental analysis and price chart - Koon Yew Yin

Author: Koon Yew Yin   |  Publish date: Thu, 22 Oct 2020, 6:08 PM


All the glove stocks have been dropping in the last 2 or 3 days. The reasons for selling can be as follows:

1 Generally investors do not like political uncertainty, they prefer to sell. A few days ago, Anwar met the King to declare that he has enough MPs to support him to be the next PM. Why Anwar is still not appointed yet? 

2 Investors are happy to take profit since all the glove stocks have shot up a few hundred percent in the last 6 months. 

3 Many investors have herd instinct and follow blindly like sheep to sell glove stocks in the last 2 or 3 days.  

Good Fundamentals

Covid 19 pandemic have been affecting everyone and all listed companies except glove stocks and medical products for the virus prevention. As a result, the demand for gloves far exceeds supply and all the glove makers are taking advantage of the situation to increase their selling prices to make more and more profit which are being reflected on their stock prices.

Among all the stock selection criteria such as NTA, cash flow, debt or health accounts etc, profit growth prospect is the most powerful catalyst to push up share prices.

Currently all the glove stocks have unprecedented profit growth prospect. Supermax has the best profit growth rate as shown in its latest quarterly report. Based on its ability to increase its selling price, its profit for next quarter will be the best in the history of the company. The company will make the announcement soon. 

Uptrend Price Chart

The above one-month price charts for the 2 leading glove stocks, namely Supermax and Top Glove are still showing up trend. They are not on down trend.

Conclusion: if you sell glove stocks what better stocks can you buy? Only glove stocks will continue to have good profit growth prospect. As I said earlier, Covid 19 pandemic is affecting all listed companies except glove stocks.

All investment decision must be based on   fundamental analysis and price charts. Glove stocks have good fundamentals and good uptrend price charts.    

 

Labels: SUPERMX, TOPGLOV

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