Highlights

THE INVESTMENT APPROACH OF CALVIN TAN

Author: calvintaneng   |   Latest post: Tue, 1 Jun 2021, 1:40 PM

 

From Permafrost to Precipitation, Calvin Tan Research (At what stage is Glove, Steel/Aluminium & Palm Oil Stocks currently?

Author:   |    Publish date:


This is a reposted article

 

The Eight  Stages  of A Hot Air Balloon Stock

NOTE: THIS ALSO APPLY TO CYCLICALS LIKE GLOVES, STEEL/ALUMINIUM & PALM OIL

 

Stage No. 1.  PermaFrost

Snow that is frozen for 2 or more years are called permafrost 

perma - as in perma-nent

frost - be freezed over

This is the stage of a really dead stock that no research house will bother. Not a single soul is interested.  The exception must be the only one in ten thousand who dare to buy any.

Stage No. 2. Thawing

Frozen Solid Ice starts to thaw or soften a little

A very slight passing glance by some value investors or deep value hunters. Only the very brave who SEE VALUE Will dare to buy some.

Stage No. 3 ICE Now Turning to Cold Water.

Some brave souls dare to venture in. Of course it's cold. Every where people pour scorn and cold water on the stock. Very few pay any attention. Remarks are usually negative. From Remisiers, fund managers, one and all. Same conclusion - the stock is not in their investment radar. So most reject it..

Stage 4. Cold Water no longer cold. It is now at room temperature.

Ha! there is a little attention paid by value investor. For the rest it is neither cold nor hot. So lukewarm response. No longer negative like before. But not positive either. A few hopeful investor  starts to accumulate.

 

Stage 5 Water starts to boil

Ha! the heat or fire cause the water to stir a little now. There is warm and movement.

Company reports a good quarter. Or some great contract awarded - real or assumed. Some by merger news. Some favourable factors due to ringgit crash and strong US Dollar translating into higher profits. Or cheap oil benefiting rubber glove, logistic stock like transport or airline. There is now a stir in the stock.

Newspapers, analysts, experts, punters and all are paying attention now. More people talk about it in internet forum and even the media reports it.

Buyers are coming in and there is a great stir at last. Things are now coming alive. Prices moving upward. Many are making   monies.

 

Stage 6. Boiling Water Turning Very Hot in the kettle. The water now churning in violent waves in the pot or kettle with steaming hot movements.

At long last the stock is very hot. Post after post by i3 forum member. All are universally drawn and sucked in. Like insects flying into bornfire at night there is a red hot wild attraction. As more people telling how they made killings in the stock market even more and more people are drawn into the red hot hot stock.

Those who made money early are now piling more and more monies into the red hot stock. Some even go into margin account to buy more.

Prices leap up to the cheers of all and sundry. Everyone is so happy. Happy in a sure winner. Emotion is now flying high. Any opposing view is slammed down in a frenzy. Reason is now overtaken by exuberance.

 

Stage No. 7. Hot Steam Rises Up The Sky As Hot Air To Form Cloud

All are now in cloud nine. Naysayers are condemned and proven wrong. The sky is the limit for the price. Can now fly to the moon or mars. More monies piled in. More suckers drawn in by greed.

This is the happiest time for all. But throwing all caution to the wind this is also now the most dangerous time to hold or buy more.

In Bursa every day the hot stock is traded in top 10 volumes

In internet forum this is the stock conversation revolves around day and night. Media reports it and tell why it should go even higher. Experts suddenly appear to tell you this time is different. The sky is the limit. Or the sky is not limit. It should fly to outer space.

See example:

Sumatech has a total of  121,603 posts

121,603 POSTS? AMAZING INDEED!

And 123 people clicked like for sumatech

All finally caught in SudaTrap

 

 123 people like this.
   Showing 10 of 121603 comments. Show more comments
SejukSam any news on this sumatec?
17/05/2016 17:31

 

Hmmm?

IFCA Also got many posts & likes

55 people like this. (IFCA)
   Showing 10 of 45505 comments. Show more comments

 

Hmmm?

Airasia also look like one now with 40,978 hot hot comments

66 people like this. (airasia)
   Showing 10 of 40978 comments. Show more comments

 

 

Stage No. 8 Precipitation - Cloud falls down and crash back to earth in torrential rain.

All caught holding high flying shares on the steep fall to earth are in despair. This is the ultimate result for those who chased hot hot stocks at the very peak = total loss and bankruptcies.

 

See from permafrost to precipitation stocks

 

SUMATEC RESOURCES BERHAD [S] (1201)

Company Website 
Annual Report 
General Meetings


SUMATEC RESOURCES BHD (1201) Chart
 
 
 
Calvin comments:
 
For Medical Gloves it is now at Stage 7 going to 8
 
For Steel/Aluminium at stage between 6 & 7
 
For Palm Oil now moving from Stage 3 to stage 4
 
SO FROM HERE THERE IS A CLEAR SIGN THAT GLOVES ARE OVERVALUED, STEEL/ALUMINIUM FULLY VALUED BUT PALM OIL STILL FAIR OR UNDERVALUE
 
BEST REGARDS
 
Calvin Tan Research
 
Please buy or sell AFTER doing your own due diligence. In doubt consult your remisier or Fund Manager
 
 

STAGE OF PERMAFROST (ICE FORM: SOLID AND LIFELESS) NO BODY INTERESTED IN SUCH "DEAD" STOCKS

Melting Arctic permafrost could supercharge global warming - China Dialogue

 

STAGE OF A HOT STOCK (MANY PEOPLE ARE NOW HOT IN PURSUIT: HOT TOPIC AND HOT STOCK IN CONVERSATION

 

The physics of a boiling kettle – my question to the commission! | Roger  Helmer MEP

 

 

STAGE OF CLOUD NINE (ALL ARE IN EUPHORIA & CELEBRATION AS SHARES REACHED PEAK & HIGH UP THE SKY)

AND THOSE WHO STILL CHASE AND BUY ARE IN GREATEST DANGER: 90% OF THE PEOPLE NOW FULL OF CONFIDENCE

Best 100+ Cloud Pictures [HQ] | Download Free Images on Unsplash

 

 

STAGE OF MARKET CRASHING DOWN

FALLING PRICES

 

Motorists advised in the event of heavy rainfall drive with extreme caution  or stay-off road network

 

 

STAGE OF LOOKING FOR SHELTER FROM THE STORM OF LOSSES

 

What Is Torrential Rain and How Forceful Is it?

 

 

 

 
 
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greedy44 Nice article
08/05/2021 7:24 AM
calvintaneng Greedy44

Tyvm

Your ID got secret code

Greedy44??

Greedy then followed by 44?

Yes if we are greedily chasing Market At Bubble Zones then will end up die die (44)
08/05/2021 11:36 AM
PATIKAYA Burung calavin ini melingkup hutan melintang..mana sarang netx
08/05/2021 3:38 PM
sandrakkc Great write up bro Calvin.
08/05/2021 4:42 PM
patrico8 Glove stage 8 was last year overboiled and turned to steam. Then fell down to earth and now is at stage 3, warming only. Prices fell more than 60% from ATH.
09/05/2021 11:33 AM
stockraider The direction is strong accumulation for IJMPLANT mah...!!

This company has 60k planted hectarage in sabah & indonesia, alot of its plantation is emerging as prime stage mah!
This will boost its revenue & profits with good cpo price loh...!!

U can expect superb result this coming December qtr mah...!!

Strong buy, do not missed loh!

What does this cpo price trend below tell U leh ??

Date Settlement Price RM
7 May 4788
3 Dec 3332
2 Dec 3316
1 Dec 3347
30 No 3305
27 No 3338
26 No 3227
25 Nov3285
24 No 3249
23 Nov 3326
20 Nov 3288

Ans; Rising CPO price and Rising Profit loh!!

Until Sept latest qtr result cpo average is roughly rm 2600 mah!!

December QTR we will be seeing conservatively Average Price Rm 3200, that is 23% increase in price n this increase revenue will all goes to the bottom line profit as there are no cost applicable to revenue generated from price increase loh...!!

Just imagine if Average palm oil price is Rm 2800, U already see super strong profit loh!! But now we are at above 4788 loh...!!

Can U forecast & project what will palmoil company potential super profit at rm 4500 cpo leh ?
09/05/2021 12:25 PM
calvintaneng For cpo it is uptrending

The best is yet to come
09/05/2021 8:04 PM
calvintaneng The best cpo world record prices
The best days
The best bull upside

All are still ahead as the best is yet to come

See all At The Top
09/05/2021 8:20 PM
CCWONG The whole commodities' markets, economics, supply and demands are on the upwards trends and best is yet to come.

Staying high up there for a prolonged period is good enough.
09/05/2021 8:25 PM
calvintaneng Slow and steady up for Palm oil this year

What glove did last year palm oil is repeating this year

Success begets success!
10/05/2021 1:17 PM


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