Highlights

THE INVESTMENT APPROACH OF CALVIN TAN

Author: calvintaneng   |   Latest post: Thu, 17 Oct 2019, 3:03 AM

 

MAYBULK (5077) FOLLOWS BALTIC DRY INDEX POWERFUL UPTREND FROM 500 PTS TO 2518 PTS, Calvin Tan Research

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Dear Friends of i3 Investors Forum (Please read to the very end as I type now

I see lightning flashing and flashing in Baltic Dry Index (BDI)  rising spectacularly from 595 index to 2518 now.

BDI is the thermometer for Bulk dry goods Shipping like MAYBULK

The BDI index has surged from 595 to 2518 for a Whopping 423% rise while MAYBULK has been up only from 47 sen to 66 sen or a mere 40% only.

What is Baltic Dry Index and why Calvin is curious?

 

It was in year 2008. The place was OSK Securities, Rose Merah Branch, Johor.

On the dispay Screens were displayed live stock quotes of KLSE Stocks

Suddenly, my Johor Sifu rose up and exclaimed in glee!

BALTIC DRY INDEX UP!!

MAYBULK WILL GO UP!

I MUST LOAD UP MORE MAYBULK SHARES!!

At that time I was a total newbie. So I watched in suspense as MAYBULK Share Price Rose And Rose Up - following the ballastic rise of BDI Index

That was 11 years ago. Today I have a clearer knowledge of the CORELATION BETWEEN BALTIC DRY INDEX AND MAY BULK

Let's look at the definition from Wikipedia on BDI

Baltic Dry Index

From Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia
 
 
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Baltic Dry Index 1985–2013

The Baltic Dry Index (BDI), is issued daily by the London-based Baltic Exchange. The BDI is a composite of the Capesize, Panamax and Supramax Timecharter Averages. It is reported around the world as a proxy for dry bulk shipping stocks as well as a general shipping market bellwether.

The BDI is the successor to the Baltic Freight Index (BFI) and came into operation on 1 November 1999. The BDI continues the established time series of the BFI, however, the voyages and vessels covered by the index have changed over time so caution should be exercised in assuming long term constancy of the data.

 

SO BDI TRACKS THE COST AND PERFORMANCE OF THESE BULK CARGO SHIPS:

1) CAPESIZE

2) PANAMAX

3) SUPRAMAX

THESE SHIPS RENT FROM RM35,000 TO RM50,000 A DAY TRANSPORTING GRAINS, IRON ORE, COAL & OTHERS ON THE HIGH SEAS

SO THE RISE OR FALL OF THESE PRICES WILL DETERMINE THE HEALTH OF MAYBULK

WHY IS THE BALTIC INDEX SUDDENLY SPIKED UP?

THESE ARE SOME IMPORTANT FINDINGS:

Please Refer the Lastest Report of MayBulk

PROSPECTS

Having weathered a weak Q1 in 2019, the Baltic Dry Index (BDI) regained some momentum and the freight market witnessed improvements across all segments in Q2. The increase in seasonal soya bean shipments from Brazil to China which started since March 2019 and the resumption of Vale’s iron ore shipments in June 2019 helped to drive freight rates higher particularly for Capesize and Panamax vessels. The world operating fleet is expected to reduce in 2H of 2019 as more vessels are taken off for scrubber retrofitting in preparation for new emission regulations which will come into force from 1st January 2020. The added tonne miles from soya bean and iron ore shipments together with the reduced world operating fleet should help improve freight rates in 2H 2019.

 

FROM THE ABOVE WE CAN SEE

1) Having weathered a weak Q1 in 2019, the Baltic Dry Index (BDI) regained some momentum and the freight market witnessed improvements across all segments in Q2

This statement corresponds with latest quarterly result

Losses have been pared down from -15.13 sen to -0.69 sen only

 

2) The increase in seasonal soya bean shipments from Brazil to China which started since March 2019

Ah the reason is given here. Increase of soybean shipment from Brazil to China (That is why losses have been reduced tremendously)

 

3)  the resumption of Vale’s iron ore shipments in June 2019 helped to drive freight rates higher particularly for Capesize and Panamax vessels.

YES THIS IS THE ONE REASON WHY BDI INDEX SPIKED UPWARD!

VALE IRON  ORE MINE WAS CLOSED DUE TO A FLOOD FROM DAM BREAKAGE!

NOW IRON ORE SHIPMENT RESUMED. THAT MEANS MORE BUSINESS FOR MAYBULK!!

JULY TO SEPTEMBER MONTHS RESULT WILL COME IN CHUN CHUN BY NOVEMBER 2019 REPORT

 

4)  The world operating fleet is expected to reduce in 2H of 2019 as more vessels are taken off for scrubber retrofitting in preparation for new emission regulations which will come into force from 1st January 2020. 

Whoa! BUSINESS DEMAND INCREASED BUT SUPPLY OF SHIPS REDUCED?

SO MUCH GOODS CHASING FOR SO FEW TRANSPORTS?

PRICE BIDDED UP UP AND UP!!

 

5) The added tonne miles from soya bean and iron ore shipments together with the reduced world operating fleet should help improve freight rates in 2H 2019.

THIS IS IT!

BDI INDEX SURGING TO 5 YEARS HIGH AND STILL MOVING UP AS WE TYPE

 

IN YEAR 2008 MAYBULK HAS ONLY A FLEET OF 9 VESSELS. TODAY IT HAS 17 BULK SHIPS

AT THAT TIME MAYBULK SHARE PRICES JUMPED TO OVER RM5.00. TODAY CLOSING PRICE IS 66 SEN

HOW FAR AND HOW HIGH WILL BDI GOES UP? AND HOW MUCH FURTHER WILL MAYBULK GAIN BACK?

THAT IS YET TO COME

FOR NOW IT IS TIME TO BUY AGAIN

 

BEST REGARDS

 

Calvin Tan Research

 

Please buy or sell after doing your own due diligence

 

Lightnings have been flashing and flashing in May bulk Forum 

To be followed by thunders and rain showers later!

 

See

 

 

chngmenghui BDI 1296!can maybulk up also?
07/09/2017 9:19 PM

 

 

 

chinkeong88 BDI 1332 now...if can sustain at 1500 and above, then will be good
09/09/2017 3:59 PM

 

 

Victory99 If you believe approximately 10 years per cycle
09/09/2017 5:41 PM

 

 

Victory99 In March BDI highest at 1338, the latest BDI is 1355, already broke the phycological level, tommorrow uptrend will be continue... 越战越勇(^-^)
11/09/2017 8:57 PM

 

 

 

chngmenghui BDI1385.any comment?
15/09/2017 8:55 PM

 

 

 

Diamond7 Moving up! Any good news?
18/09/2017 3:15 PM

 

 

 

chngmenghui BDI 1415!
19/09/2017 9:15 PM

 

 

 

sapurakencana BDI1415
19/09/2017 9:46 PM

 

 

 

Victory99 This stock will be a shining diamond when its cycle/timing arrive...
20/09/2017 5:42 PM

 

 

 

chngmenghui BDI:1449
20/09/2017 9:07 PM

 

 

 

Victory99 BDI 1449 MAYBULK confirm fly to the sky....
20/09/2017 9:34 PM

 

 

 

chngmenghui BDI 1470 up21
21/09/2017 8:48 PM

 

 

Victory99 BDI has been risen from 1000++ to 1500++... about 50%
Maybulk's price should be follow from RM 0.75 to ????
RM 1.10 (^_^)
23/09/2017 12:38 PM

 

 

 

Booyeah maybulk reaches new high of 1500 above with supramax ship taking the lead. in addition with the increase in oil price, hopefully posh will incur lower losses or even break even. if break even, we will see may ulk achieving net profit!
25/09/2017 11:10 PM

 

 

 

Wintogether Fong Siling (Cold Eye) emerge as 3rd largest shareholder in Maybulk.
04/04/2019 7:47 PM

 

 

 

VSOLAR Sailang Margin All In cannot be 100% chun chun 1 lah abang misai! If 100% chun chun he will be like WB liao!
04/04/2019 9:57 PM

 

 

 

ming 2442 now.. gila jor..
If the BDI can trade then im rich now..lol
03/09/2019 12:17 AM

 

 

 

 

alex89 show time
03/09/2019 11:26 AM
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
chngmenghui BDI 2501
04/09/2019 5:20 AM
chngmenghui BDI 1296!can maybulk up also?
07/09/2017 9:19 PM

 

 

The Baltic Dry Index, 1985-2019

 

 

AS BALYTIC DRY INDEX SHOT UP IN YEAR 2008 INSIDERS ALSO CHASED IT UP

 

 

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Labels: MAYBULK

Related Stocks

Chart Stock Name Last Change Volume 
MAYBULK 0.685 +0.005 (0.74%) 1,204,200 

  2 people like this.
 
Armada An Quantum Leap Stock In 2019/2020 What take Dato ages long
to cover my warship ?

must follow Dato Calvin & his Johor sifu,
cant be wrong one !
05/09/2019 1:20 PM
calvintaneng See live chart of Baltic Dry Index

https://tradingeconomics.com/commodity/baltic
05/09/2019 2:07 PM
FamousAmos Tan End research what is ur opinion on EG? I have one sozai friend been buying since 2017 and her average cost is Rm1.0. Any suggestion for this lao zaboh ?
05/09/2019 2:14 PM
calvintaneng Posted by FamousAmos > Sep 5, 2019 2:14 PM | Report Abuse

Tan End research what is ur opinion on EG? I have one sozai friend been buying since 2017 and her average cost is Rm1.0. Any suggestion for this lao zaboh ?

Eg is ok. Its time will come later

FOR NOW IRON ORE SHIPMENT FROM VALE AND SOYBEAN SHIPMENT FROM BRAZIL ARE IN HOT HOT DEMAND

MAYBULK IS DOING A ROARING BUSINESS

AFTER OIL AND GAS CYCLICAL UPTURN THIS MAYBULK'S TURN TO SHINE TIME NOW
05/09/2019 2:19 PM
calvintaneng THERE IS A CO-RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN THESE

1) COCOA PRICE RISE BENEFITS GUAN CHONG

2) NICKEL +RICE RISE BENEFITS TONG HERR

3) SO BALTIC DRY INDEX RISE WILL BENEFIT MAYBULK
05/09/2019 2:23 PM
05/09/2019 2:24 PM
calvintaneng https://www.maybulk.com.my/fleet/bulk_carriers.html
05/09/2019 2:30 PM
supperman 888 calvintaneng, can't say like this lah. If baltic dry index rise will benefit maybulk, then gold index rise will benefit poh kong, then oil index rise will benefit petronas loh. You see petronas, poh kong got benefit or not? Can not say like this mah. Must see eps got up or no up. Maybulk eps never up, so no benefit loh.



calvintaneng THERE IS A CO-RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN THESE

1) COCOA PRICE RISE BENEFITS GUAN CHONG

2) NICKEL +RICE RISE BENEFITS TONG HERR

3) SO BALTIC DRY INDEX RISE WILL BENEFIT MAYBULK
05/09/2019 8:27 PM
calvintaneng supperman 888 calvintaneng, can't say like this lah. If baltic dry index rise will benefit maybulk, then gold index rise will benefit poh kong, then oil index rise will benefit petronas loh. You see petronas, poh kong got benefit or not? Can not say like this mah. Must see eps got up or no up. Maybulk eps never up, so no benefit loh.



calvintaneng THERE IS A CO-RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN THESE

1) COCOA PRICE RISE BENEFITS GUAN CHONG

2) NICKEL PRICE RISE BENEFITS TONG HERR

3) SO BALTIC DRY INDEX RISE WILL BENEFIT MAYBULK
05/09/2019 8:27 PM



THE ANSWERS ARE CLEAR AND OBVIOUS


Check it out for yourself


Poh Kong anticipates better profit on higher gold price

https://themalaysianreserve.com/2019/01/14/poh-kong-anticipates-better-profit-%E2%80%A8on-higher-gold-price/


High oil price boosts Petronas’ 3Q net profit to RM14.3b

https://themalaysianreserve.com/2018/11/28/high-oil-price-boosts-petronas-3q-net-profit-to-rm14-3b/
06/09/2019 3:30 AM
calvintaneng PAST HISTORICAL RECORD OF MAYBULK ALSO SHOWED BALTIC INDEX RISE WILL BE FOLLOWED BY RISE OF MAYBULK SHARE PRICE


SEE YEAR 2004 REPORT (15 YEARS AGO NEWS)

Maybulk's share price has been on the uptrend since August in tandem with the rise
in the Baltic Dry Bulk Index (BDI), which measures dry bulk charter rates.

https://www.thestar.com.my/business/business-news/2004/11/24/maybulk--shares-rise-on-strong--third-quarter-results
06/09/2019 4:17 AM
calvintaneng Hi guys

I just did a very simple calculation on the Baltic Dry Index from 1st April to 30th June

Adding lowest point to highest point and divides by 2 = 1226 points average figure

Then taking July 1st index points about 1750 points to latest index point at 2462 and divides by 2 = 2106 points

So index rose to 2106 points from 1226 index is already a gain of 71% in revenue if Baltic dry index remain at status quo of today

That means that Maybulk will report a 4 sen profit by November 2019

If BDI Index should rise to cross 3,000 index?

Then the growth will be very exceptional

Easily register a 6 sen to 7 sen profit for Maybulk in November 2019

Of course as we are only into 6th of September there are 25 more days to go

Come what may the Results will range from

1) Good

2) Great

3) Fantastic

From here we expect Maybulk to trade at least 80 sen to over Rm1.00 by Nov 2019 & Feb 2020

Regards

Calvin Tan
07/09/2019 12:31 AM
calvintaneng Good morning to all who visit here,

Baltic Dry Index has been moving up and up by over 400% from 550 points to near 2500 points

But Maybulk has only gone up by 40% from 47 sen to 65.5 sen

Warren Buffet said that if a company business does well it's share price eventually follows

So we expect Maybulk share price to move up in tandem with the ride of bdi index

Lightning flashes first (Baltic dry index flashing)

Then only we hear thunder as sound travel slower

So bdi up then will be followed by maybulk

Why?

Answer

Because at any given time Bulk carriers are contracted to ship goods on the highseas
Contracts at past lower prices are locked in

Only after contract expires can Maybulk charge new and higher rates

So the rise of bdi index does not translate immediately to an on the spot price increase

So like lightning flashing first then followed by thunder there is a time lap before maybulk result show the increasing profits

So those who can understand this will take position

1. Watch Baltic index rise

2. Take position and buy into maybulk early

3. Finally, maybulk reports fantastic results and price will be chased up

Same pattern in carimin, dayang, penergy and Uzma

Brent crude oil spiked to USD 70 from Usd 30.

Petronas increased exploration by new contracts with OGSEs

Carimin, Dayang, penergy report higher earnings

Then market chased and chased up OGSE share

Carimin up 100%, Dayang up by 200% and Penergy limit up on good results.

What happens to oil bull run might also happen to Maybulk now as bdi is flashing and flashing
07/09/2019 10:11 AM
calvintaneng Do see the pattern

1. Lightning first as light travels fastest

2. Then thunder as sound travels slower

3. Finally thunderstorm and showers of rain falling

So learn to observe pre conditions

Before a bull run starts there will be indications

The signs come first

Only those who watch the signs will get the clue

And information comes first

Then action

Then results that are Chun Chun.
07/09/2019 10:15 AM
Armada An Quantum Leap Stock In 2019/2020 Thanks to Dato Calvin
For sharing your total & details resrarch for BDI.

Very useful to me.
07/09/2019 10:48 AM
FamousAmos If Tan End issues buy call on EG Venfx will lick his arse.
07/09/2019 10:54 AM
Armada An Quantum Leap Stock In 2019/2020 Amos,
No need put sour on those who
Praising author for the good work.

If, u can write an good and support with good facts with details
I ll do the same.

Growth up pls , stop spreading your sour feeling .
07/09/2019 11:01 AM
Armada An Quantum Leap Stock In 2019/2020 This the least i can show my appreciation to Author...
07/09/2019 11:02 AM
Armada An Quantum Leap Stock In 2019/2020 BTW, amos
EG is at its deep value traded range from 0.350-0.370
Make your own judgement, no one point a gun to u.

EG's jv withTaiwan Quanta is an good move.
All details , i hv commented previously in Eg thread.

Stop your childish pinpointing...
07/09/2019 11:08 AM
Armada An Quantum Leap Stock In 2019/2020 Yaa, maybulk is my next warship after armada.
My average cost is very low.
07/09/2019 11:09 AM
Nelson Yoong SO all ports shares in bursa will UP too,ports getting busy,MMCCROP,WPRTS,BIPORT,SURIA?
07/09/2019 11:14 AM
calvintaneng Suria maybe because Suria asking for a raise of port tariff

For a share to go up the company must register a coming increase of revenue, tariff or profits
07/09/2019 11:19 AM
Nelson Yoong Mmccrop and Wprt increasingly profit last coupled of quarterly results!
07/09/2019 11:23 AM
calvintaneng Ports growth ok but mostly in single digits
I once owned suria and mmc Corp. Sold for some nice profits

BUT now I look for more unusual growth prospects

Sifu Warren Buffet said if he is out looking for a 7 feet man... A 5.5 footer won't do

So since Baltic index was 1226 in April to June average and now gone up more than double to 2462 points in real time the growth is up more than 100% or doubling its profits from July to September.

By this yardstick maybulk should show exceptional profits in Nov 2019 results
07/09/2019 11:33 AM
Nelson Yoong MMC got regular DIV. at 1.07= 3.74% better than Bank FD.at the same time waiting shares price to go UP and (ports listing)is Fantastic!
07/09/2019 12:40 PM
EatCoconutCanWin Short term rise only. Too less
07/09/2019 12:46 PM
Nelson Yoong Patience to WIN BIG,ports[PTP) business is getting busy, got DIV better than BANK.
07/09/2019 12:54 PM
calvintaneng Nepo But we don't know how many bulk ships out of 17 are IMO 2020 low sulphur compliance?
07/09/2019 3:53 PM


calvintaneng Nepo

All the details can be found in Maybulk Annual Report

They retrofitted all Vessels and sold off those that did not comply

Also 3 Brand New Bulk Carriers were built in 2018/19


http://www.bursamalaysia.com/market/listed-companies/company-announcements/6116021
07/09/2019 4:18 PM
calvintaneng You wouldn’t know it from the performance of dry bulk stocks, but bulk shipping rates are on fire and reaching new heights well beyond levels seen in June and July when optimism toward the sector first flared.

On Sept. 4, the Baltic Dry Index (BDI), which tracks rates of bulkers in multiple segments, hit 2,518 points, its highest level since November 2010, almost nine years ago. Shares in the Breakwave Dry Bulk Shipping exchange-traded fund (NYSE: BDRY), which purchases freight futures to mimic the BDI, are up 127% since April.

Gains are largely being driven by bulkers in the larger Capesize category (with capacities of 100,000 deadweight tons, DWT, or more) but also by Panamaxes (65,000-90,000 DWT). The Baltic Capesize Index rose to its highest level since June 2010 – in other words, its highest level since the global financial crisis.

“Dry bulk shipping markets continue to sizzle, with spot rates at near decade highs, while the time-charter market continues to push higher,” said Deutsche Bank transportation analyst Amit Mehrotra.

According to Clarksons Platou Securities, Capesize rates reached $37,500 per day on Sept. 4, up 21% week-on-week and up 46% month-on-month. Panamax rates were $19,900 per day, up 2% week-on-week and 32% month-on-month.

During the quarterly conference call with analysts held by Safe Bulkers on Sept. 4, executives pointed to much higher levels of Brazilian iron-ore exports to China driving Capesizes and strong grain exports to Asia out of the east coast of South America driving Panamaxes.

While stocks have been waylaid by investor fears over the U.S.-China trade war, these tensions offer several potential silver linings for dry bulk.

In the agricultural sector, the cessation of Chinese buying of U.S. exports has been largely considered a negative for shipping, but this is not necessarily the case.

To the extent U.S. exports are replaced by exports from Brazil and Argentina and do not decrease in overall volume, it is a positive for shipping demand. Panamaxes picking up cargoes in South America use the eastward Cape of Good Hope route to Asia, which is moderately longer than the westward route between the U.S. Gulf and Asia via the Panama Canal. Longer average distances are a positive for freight rates because longer voyages soak up more vessel capacity.

In the iron-ore sector that drives Capesize rates, a weaker economic outlook has historically spurred stimulus plans in China – plans that favor construction and consequently iron-ore imports for steel production.

According to Clarksons Platou Securities managing director of research Frode Mørkedal, “Looking at the ferocious dry bulk rally, with spot rates now at the highest [levels] since before the financial crisis, we ask ourselves if China already pushed the stimulus button.

“While there are several reasons for the recovery since June, such as increased Brazilian iron ore driving ton-miles higher and scrubber retrofits taking ships out of service, it is not just Capesizes performing, but Panamaxes and Supramaxes as well, indicating a possible broad-based demand recovery behind the strong rates. Several indicators like steel production and housing starts are supportive [of the Chinese stimulus theory]. It is reasonable to assume that a [Chinese] stimulus program would be good news for all shipping, in particular dry bulk,” noted Mørkedal.

The counterargument is that the recent spike in dry bulk rates is not sustainable. If so, it makes sense that Wall Street investors have shied away from buying the stocks.

Randy Giveans, shipping analyst at Jefferies, said that he expects second-half rates to be “much better” than first-half rates due to higher Brazilian exports and less fleet availability due to scrubber installations (the IMO 2020 rule effective Jan. 1 requires the use of ultra-low-sulfur fuel unless ships have exhaust-gas scrubbers installed). However, Giveans said that he does not “expect rates to remain at these [currently] elevated levels for the rest of the year.”

Ben Nolan, shipping analyst at Stifel, went further, opining that “most of that rate increase [in dry bulk rates] is due to scrubber installations reducing supply,” which he believes will be “ultimately transitory in nature.”
Source: Freight Waves
08/09/2019 7:58 PM


 

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