Highlights

THE INVESTMENT APPROACH OF CALVIN TAN

Author: calvintaneng   |   Latest post: Tue, 17 Sep 2019, 12:10 PM

 

MAYBULK (5077) HUGE CHANGE OF FORTUNE EXPLAINED STEP BY STEP CLEARLY, Calvin Tan Research

Author:   |    Publish date:


Hi guys,

Investments are most businesslike if we can see where we are going or what we are buying into

First of all see definition on MAYBULK

The MBC Group is the largest drybulk shipowner in Malaysia engaged in international shipping. The MBC Group presently owns and operates a fleet of vessels which includes dry bulk carriers and product tankers. MBC Group's vessels are largely tramped on the spot and period markets. 

From here we can see that

1)Maybulk is the LARGEST DRYBULK SHIPOWNER IN MALAYSIA

2) DRY BULK means it transports DRY GOODS in BULK like iron ore, coal, sugar, soya beans & other DRY Goods

3) Its Business is INTERNATIONAL. That means it plays on World Oceans

4) MBC Group's vessels are largely tramped on the spot and period markets.

It means that Maybulk charges shipping rates on the spot (daily prices) or period markets (in this case when they ship soya bean from Brazil to China per trip of 60 days to 120 days the rate is locked in per voyage. And prices will change accoding to daily market rate

That means that BDI in lean years below 1,000 points index Maybulk made less monies & Now That BDI Index has doubled ITS PROFITS WILL ALSO DOUBLE

See our friend's comment

 

 

Titan Looking at the chart, it is super bullish. Broken the short term, midterm and long term lines. 1st resistance at 0.695. If can break 0.7 convincingly.....then will further uptrend. Next QR will be end of Nov which will cover Jul, Aug & Sept which is also the biggest jump in BDI. I think average is above 2000. Last QR which is Apr, May and June, the BDI is on average 1000 only. So now it is x2? It is as if someone offer you 2x the salary to you for doing the same old thing or sailing on the same route?? Got such a job to intro to me ah???

11/09/2019 3:40 PM 

 

Well said let Calvin quote again

Next QR will be end of Nov which will cover Jul, Aug & Sept which is also the biggest jump in BDI. I think average is above 2000. Last QR which is Apr, May and June, the BDI is on average 1000 only. (IN APRIL TO JUNE MAYBULK RESULT WAS REPORTED IN AUGUST 2019 WHEN BDI AVERAGED 1,000) So now it is x2? It is as if someone offer you 2x the salary to you for doing the same old thing or sailing on the same route?? (SO FROM JULY TO SEPT QUARTER BDI ALREADY DOUBLED TO OVER 2,000 POINTS)  Got such a job to intro to me ah???

 

THAT MEANS THAT NOVEMBER 2019 QTR RESULT BEING GOOD/VERY GOOD IS ALREADY A GIVEN

 

NOW LET US TAKE A MORE CAREFUL EXAMINATION OF MAYBULK ACTUAL BUSINESS

(Please Refer to Company Website, Annual Report & Qtr Announcement)

 

And these are the BULK CARRIERS owned by Maybulk

 

Owned/Controlled

NO VESSEL NAME

YEAR BUILT

DWT
(MT)
DRAFT
(Meters)
LOA
(Meters)
BEAM
(Meters)
HO / HA GEARS Link
Post-Panamax Bulk Carriers (Double Hull)
1 Alam Padu Apr-05 87,052 14.14 229.00 36.50 7/7 Gearless
2 Alam Permai Jun-05 87,052 14.14 229.00 36.50 7/7 Gearless
3 Alam Penting Jul-05 87,052 14.14 229.00 36.50 7/7 Gearless
4 Alam Pintar Oct-05 87,052 14.14 229.00 36.50 7/7 Gearless
Supramax Bulk Carriers (Grab Fitted)
1 Alam Manis Mar-07 55,652 12.58 189.99 32.26 5/5

4C/30T

4G/12 cbm

2 Alam Mutiara Apr-12 61,498 13.01 199.98 32.24 5/5

4C/30T

4G/12 cbm

3 Alam Sayang Jul-13 61,410 13.01 199.98 32.24 5/5

4C/30T

4G/12 cbm

 
4 Alam Madu Sep-14 58,045 12.95 189.93 32.26 5/5

4C/30T

4G/12 cbm

 
5 Alam Molek Oct-14 58,074 12.95 189.93 32.26 5/5

4C/30T

4G/12 cbm

 
6 Alam Makmur Mar-15 55,865 12.70 189.90 32.26 5/5

4C/30T

4G/12 cbm

 
7 Alam Mulia Sep-15 61,254 13.00 199.90 32.26 5/5

4C/30T

4G/12 cbm

 
Handysize Bulk Carriers
1 Alam Seri Mar-11 29,562 9.72 170.70 27.00 5/5 4Cx30T/Logs
2 Atlantic Progress Jun-11 32,527 10.20 177.40 28.20 5/5 4Cx30T
3 Atlantic Dream Dec-11 32,527 10.20 177.40 28.20 5/5 4Cx30T
4 Alam Suria Jan-12 29,077 9.72 170.70 27.00 5/5 4Cx30T
5 Alam Setia Oct-13 36,320 10.72 176.50 28.80 5/5 4Cx30T  
6 Alam Sinar Jan-14 36,320 10.72 176.50 28.80 5/5 4Cx30T  

 

There are 17 Dry Bulk Carriers (With Head Offices in Malaysia & Singapore)

 

Now in Company Report it stated 3 More

See

 

Chairman’s Statement (cont’d)

In 2018, the Group’s fleet rejuvenation program was well underway. The Group took delivery of the bulk carrier, the Alam Kekal in October, the first in a series of three ecoKamsarmax newbuildings constructed in Japan. These vessels comply with latest industry regulations, are able to carry a larger quantity of cargoes and are more fuel-efficient than the other ships of its class in our fleet.

 

SO FROM HERE WE CAN SEE THE ADDITIONAL 3 NEW KAMSARMAX - Making a Total Fleet of 20 DRY BULK CARRIERS (In year 2008 MBC has only 9 DRY BULK CARRIERS)

 

NOW LET:S READ AGAIN

Dry Bulk Market: Capesizes Reach New Highs

It was a largely uneventful week, with the indices drifting lower, albeit without much conviction. Sources said owners with prompt tonnage on the Continent had to reduce their ideas to find cover. However, this appeared limited to shorter duration trades, with later tonnage content to sit and wait. The North Pacific also suffered from a seasonal slump in North Pacific stems. The South continued to be reliant on the South American market, which saw Kamsarmaxes achieve as much as $20,000 from Singapore for the long round voyage. (NOTE: MAYBULK JUST GOT 3 BRAND NEW KAMSARMAX DELIVERED RECENTLY. AND MAYBULK ALSO OPERATES FROM SINGAPORE) However, dips in the paper values helped to weaken sentiment, giving charterers the opportunity to step back in the hope of finding cheaper offers. Fundamentally the market appeared stable and well balanced, with any injection of South American activity likely to see rates improve once again. However, the mood had remained cautious, without clear direction during the week.

From the above News report YOU CAN SEE that Each KAMSARMAX Commands a Daily Charter Rate of USD$20,000 or RM85,000 a day. Multiply that by 3 would be Rm85,000 x 3 = Rm255,000 & Mulitiply that again by 3 Months Voyage from Brazil to China by Panama Canal = RM7.65 Millions

And that is calculatiion for 3 New Bulk Carriers only

What's more?

SEE AGAIN

Ocean Rate Report: Bulker bosses explain freight price resurgence

 
 

The good news is that the Baltic Dry Index (BDI), which tracks bulker charter rates, recently hit its highest point since late July 2018, and the stocks of several publicly listed bulker owners are up 30 to 50 percent since June 1.

The not-so-good news is that the July 2018 BDI level was well below the peaks seen in 2014 and 2011, and dry bulk stocks are up off an extremely low base and are still trading under the companies’ net asset value (market-adjusted assets minus liabilities).

Regardless of these caveats, there is no denying that rates in dry bulk have shown promising strength in recent days and weeks. Meanwhile, tanker rates are pulling back after recent surges, and container freight rates continue to inch up as the industry heads into the third-quarter peak season.

Bulkers continue to impress

According to Clarksons Platou Securities, rates for Capesize bulkers – vessels with capacity of 100,000 deadweight tons (DWT) or more – reached $26,400 per day on July 9, up 25 percent week-on-week and 76 percent month-on-month. Rates for Panamaxes (65,000-90,000 DWT) were $15,200 per day, up 22 percent week-on-week and 33 percent month-on-month.

The reasons behind the upturn were discussed in a Capital Link webinar on July 9 featured top executives from Safe Bulkers, Star Bulk and Scorpio Bulkers. Since June 1, the stock prices of these three companies have risen 47 percent, 41 percent and 36 percent respectively.

The first reason for rate strength is, as usual, China. “China may look weaker in some sectors but not in steel production, which is up 10 percent in the first half and that is what drives iron-ore imports,” said Hamish Norton, president of Star Bulk.

He believes the Chinese government will enact a stimulus program to counteract any negative impact of U.S. tariffs “and their fiscal stimulus has almost always involved subsidized steel production for infrastructure and real estate – so there should be no shortage of demand from China.” Scorpio Bulkers president Robert Bugbee added, “We are certainly not seeing China fall apart.”

The next reason for rate improvements involves the Brazil-to-China iron-ore trade. Because this route is three times as long as the voyage from Australia to China, it soaks up three times the ship capacity. Vessels carrying Brazilian ore are dominated by Capesize bulkers and larger ships known as Valemaxes or very large ore carriers (VLOCs), which have a capacity of up to 400,000 DWT. VLOCs are largely under the commercial control of Brazilian iron-ore producer Vale (NYSE: VALE) through multi-year contracts.

Vale’s Brucutu mine, which produces 30 million tons per year of iron ore, went offline in January after the deadly collapse of a tailings dam, and reopened in late June. While Brucutu was offline, China drew down its iron-ore stockpiles, which will now need replenishing.

According to Norton, Capesize operators were afraid to ballast (sail empty) toward Brazil because of the Brucutu mine closure, “so there is a significant shortage of Capes in the Atlantic Basin, and all of the VLOCs controlled by Vale have already been loaded up and are laden and heading east.”

 

This “almost guarantees high Capesize rates for the next 50 days,” he maintained. In other words, it will take 50 days’ sailing time for enough Capesizes to ballast their way to Brazil and bring down rates.

The next reason for dry bulk strength involves the consequence of the Capesize shortage in the Atlantic Basin for smaller vessel classes. When Capesizes are not available, shippers will split bulk cargo lots in half and employ two smaller ships instead, such as Panamaxes and post-Panamaxes (90,000-100,000 DWT).

According to Polys Hajioannou, chief executive officer of Safe Bulkers, “Smaller sizes are starting to benefit from the lack of Capesizes in the Atlantic. We are seeing post panamaxes in the Mediterranean achieving rates of  USD$26,000 to  USD$27,000 a day from the Black Sea to the Far East. Those would normally be Capesize cargoes but they are being split down the middle.”

Calvin comments:

From the above we can see that there are not enought Big Capesized Bulk Carriers

SO THERE IS DEMAND FOR 2 POST PANAMAX TO MAKE UP FOR ONE CAPESIZE BULK CARRIER

AND MAYBULK HAS 4 POST PANAMAX BULK CARRIERS (AT USD26K = RM106,600 PER DAY) 4 UNITS = RM426.4K

AND 90 DAYS PER VOYAGE = RM12,792,000 (A MIND BLOWING RM12.7 MILLIONS )

And there are still 13 SUPRAMAX & HANDMAX 

See

 

 

 

 

NO VESSEL NAME

YEAR BUILT

DWT
(MT)
DRAFT
(Meters)
LOA
(Meters)
BEAM
(Meters)
HO / HA GEARS Link
Post-Panamax Bulk Carriers (Double Hull)
1 Alam Padu Apr-05 87,052 14.14 229.00 36.50 7/7 Gearless
2 Alam Permai Jun-05 87,052 14.14 229.00 36.50 7/7 Gearless
3 Alam Penting Jul-05 87,052 14.14 229.00 36.50 7/7 Gearless
4 Alam Pintar Oct-05 87,052 14.14 229.00 36.50 7/7 Gearless
Titan Looking at the chart, it is super bullish. Broken the short term, midterm and long term lines. 1st resistance at 0.695. If can break 0.7 convincingly.....then will further uptrend. Next QR will be end of Nov which will cover Jul, Aug & Sept which is also the biggest jump in BDI. I think average is above 2000. Last QR which is Apr, May and June, the BDI is on average 1000 only. So now it is x2? It is as if someone offer you 2x the salary to you for doing the same old thing or sailing on the same route?? Got such a job to intro to me ah???
11/09/2019 3:40 PM

 

Share this

 
Armada An Quantum Leap Stock In 2019/2020 Salute Dato Calvin.

Your knowledge and energy always amazes me
I always wonder how come Dato Calvin can write an article speed like the bullets
Super fast amd informatic.

Are you a journalist ?
11/09/2019 7:19 PM
origamiandair If calvin is a journalist he dah lama kena insider trading lol. Bukanlah.
11/09/2019 7:30 PM
3iii https://malaysiastock.biz/Company-Announcement.aspx?id=685804

Changes in Director's Interest (S135)
MALAYSIAN BULK CARRIERS BERHAD

Particulars of Director
Name Dato' Lim Chee Wah
Descriptions(Class & nominal value) Ordinary shares of RM0.25 par value each
Details of changes
Currency: Malaysian Ringgit (MYR)

Type of transaction
Date of change
No of securities
Price Transacted ($$)
ACQUIRED
10/10/2013
100,000
1.820



https://malaysiastock.biz/Company-Announcement.aspx?id=676052

Changes in Director's Interest (S135)
MALAYSIAN BULK CARRIERS BERHAD

Particulars of Director
Name Te Joo Kim
Descriptions(Class & nominal value) Ordinary shares of RM0.25 par value each
Details of changes
Currency: Malaysian Ringgit (MYR)

Type of transaction
Date of change
No of securities
Price Transacted ($$)
ACQUIRED
27/08/2013
101,300
1.620
ACQUIRED
28/08/2013
60,000
1.560



https://malaysiastock.biz/Company-Announcement.aspx?id=661613
Changes in Director's Interest (S135)
MALAYSIAN BULK CARRIERS BERHAD

Particulars of Director
Name Mohammad bin Abdullah
Descriptions(Class & nominal value) Ordinary shares of RM0.25 par value each
Details of changes
Currency: Malaysian Ringgit (MYR)

Type of transaction
Date of change
No of securities
Price Transacted ($$)
ACQUIRED
24/06/2013
30,000
1.660

Circumstances by reason of which change has occurred Acquisition of shares in open market


https://malaysiastock.biz/Company-Announcement.aspx?id=625206
Changes in Director's Interest (S135)
MALAYSIAN BULK CARRIERS BERHAD

Particulars of Director
Name Dato' Capt. Ahmad Sufian @ Qurnain bin Abdul Rashid
Descriptions(Class & nominal value) Ordinary shares of RM0.25 par value each
Details of changes
Currency: Malaysian Ringgit (MYR)

Type of transaction
Date of change
No of securities
Price Transacted ($$)
ACQUIRED
21/01/2013
10,000
1.350

Circumstances by reason of which change has occurred Acquisition of shares in open market


https://malaysiastock.biz/Company-Announcement.aspx?id=621252
Changes in Director's Interest (S135)
MALAYSIAN BULK CARRIERS BERHAD

Particulars of Director
Name Dato' Capt. Ahmad Sufian @ Qurnain bin Abdul Rashid
Descriptions(Class & nominal value) Ordinary shares of RM0.25 par value each
Details of changes
Currency: Malaysian Ringgit (MYR)

Type of transaction
Date of change
No of securities
Price Transacted ($$)
ACQUIRED
28/12/2012
10,000
1.350

Circumstances by reason of which change has occurred Acquisition of shares in open market
11/09/2019 7:43 PM
calvintaneng Very good

For once 3iii highlighted something positive

If Directors and Insiders bought so much Maybulk shares from RM1. 35 to a high of Rm1. 82 and still holding tightly at 70 sen our buying cost is far below them
11/09/2019 7:59 PM
Chokhmah if this is the case, can all in already lo
11/09/2019 7:59 PM
Titan Wah, Calvin quote my comment ah? Got ask permission or not??....lol
Anyway, not always i see eye to eye with Calvin but for maybulk, at least we see something in common la.

Chokhmah, u better dun all in oh. Calvin do hv reputation to bring ppl to holland for holiday and leave them there to bcome permanent resident. Right Calvin??? I stil waiting for the day for your CPO price goes to RM6000. Dunno will i see in my lifetime or not.....lol.
11/09/2019 11:37 PM
calvintaneng Titan is correct

Thks
12/09/2019 12:02 AM
3iii Directors last bought into Maybulk in Oct 2013 at higher prices than today. They have not bought more since.

Conclusions:

Even in 2013, the directors who bought did not assess the business and value of this company correctly.

They have not bought more today and this surely sends a strong message.
12/09/2019 12:07 AM
calvintaneng They have not sold any

That means that they have faith in the company

Unlike transmile, Megan media and seacera directors sold all Directors of Maybulk believe the Company prospects
12/09/2019 12:26 AM
3iii Why did they not sell? Well, you need to fathom behavioural finance to understand more.

OTOH keep focus on the insiders.

I made a lot of money on Maybulk before it went down. Sold the majority of my shares before its decline few years back. My last few shares were sold off at 2.20 each.

When a company's fundamentals deteriorated, SELL.

In earlier years, Maybulk was a very good company to own. Its core business was profitable. However, the company made a lot of money when it sold its hard assets (carriers) for huge profits due to shortage of capacity in the industry. These extraordinary income boosted its cash and Maybulk rewarded its shareholders with generous dividends. Accordingly, its share price too increased.

All its directors owned substantial shares in their own names prior to 2008. Post 2008, this sector went into a decline. World trade diminished. Too many new carriers were built during the good time. There were too much capacity. BDI dropped. By the time its earnings were decimated, all its directors had sold all their shares. Yes, do keep an eye on the insiders' activities regarding their buying and selling.

Maybulk is a hard asset company. It is capital intensive with high fixed costs and high capex. There are better companies to hold long term.
12/09/2019 7:44 AM
opustang dont be con by paid writers .if the counter is good as written,why penny stock status? holland ships.
12/09/2019 8:45 AM
calvintaneng Maybulk is a cyclical share whose time has come

What is a cyclical?

Answer:

1. A ferris wheel like The Singapore Flyer

THE tallest ferris wheel in Spore about 500 feet at its highest
At peak you can see whole of Spore, Johor and parts of Indonesia
It takes about 30 minutes to make one cycle

2. Then we have yearly cycle

Moon cake, bah Chang (Chinese dumpling), santa Claus for Christmas, durian season, salmon run season, winter ski resort for 2 or 3 months

All these are cyclical and seasonal

3. Then in Malaysia we have cyclical steel stocks that depend on heavy high infrar projects like highways, schools, mrt, lrt, ecrl, pan Borneo, high speed rail. When infrar jobs in earnest then demand for steel goes up. If delayed or postponed steel goes down

So a cyclical depends on these

1. The times and the seasons
Bad times like North East monsoon will affect fishermen in Trengganu as sea very rough and dangerous. And monsoon months caused ogse business to slacken. That was why Uzma was down. Now monsoon over so Uzma performs again

2. Govt
If Govt starts infrar works for economic stimulation then demand for cyclical steel and cement will increase

In the case of soya bean export from Brazil to China it was caused by US trade war with China

In the case of Iron ore from Vale it was court order banning Iron ore mining due to dam collapse. Now that export has resumed demand for dry bulk ships increased

Govt wants clean sulphur ship... So imo2020 put some old bulk ships out of action
As there are less ships so less competition

AND after installation of scrubbers prices also rise in tandem

So cyclical can go up due to seasonal changes
It can also go up by Cause and Effect

AND to anticipate changes Maybulk Bosses are able to see ahead and be proactive.

Retired old ships. Build newer, bigger ships.

So it has been very "lucky"?

AND luck is preparation meeting opportunity

Investing also depends on experience.

You must know ahead of time from reading up or from personal experience or observation

My Johor Sifu made lots and lots from bdi index rise and maybulk bull run in year 2008 when I made zero because I was a spectator then

Now I didn't miss this round

Thanks to my Johor Sifu
12/09/2019 12:50 PM


 

329  377  563  710 

ActiveGainersLosers
Top 10 Active Counters
 NameLastChange 
 SAPNRG 0.295+0.015 
 ARMADA 0.315+0.01 
 GPACKET-WB 0.265+0.01 
 SAPNRG-WA 0.12+0.005 
 HSI-H6S 0.165+0.045 
 HSI-C7E 0.21-0.085 
 HSI-H8E 0.29+0.05 
 KNM 0.38+0.005 
 VSOLAR 0.100.00 
 HSI-H6T 0.47+0.095 

TOP ARTICLES

1. Why Investors fail? - Koon Yew Yin Koon Yew Yin's Blog
2. POS - Special Thanks to KKMM Minister YB Gobind Singh Deo For Shedding Light on Tariff Hike Proposal !!! Investhor's Mighty Hammer of Wisdom
3. Four simple reasons why Alam Maritim can hit 20 sen Good stocks to share
4. OPCOM (0035) OPTIMAL OPTIC COMPANY : THE SUPER-STOCK OF THE DIGITAL ECONOMY, Calvin Tan Research THE INVESTMENT APPROACH OF CALVIN TAN
5. Saudi oil production cut by 50%. And here is the best oil & gas counter to play — Alam Maritim & its warrants BEST INVESTING IDEAS
6. A Relook into Bumi Armada from Profitability, Volume Spread Analysis and what’s Insiders Report are telling they are doing now ? TradeVSA - Case Study
7. When can ego be good and when can it be bad? Koon Yew Yin Koon Yew Yin's Blog
8. [转贴] 巴菲特告訴孩子:成為富有的人,一生只需要3種投資 Good Articles to Share
Partners & Brokers