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1,011 comment(s). Last comment by shrobin at Nov 24, 2020 12:26 PM
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firenarch
21 posts

Posted by firenarch > Nov 18, 2019 8:50 PM | Report Abuse

good word to describe gdb


Ny036
637 posts

Posted by Ny036 > Nov 18, 2019 11:37 PM | Report Abuse

Going to overtake Kerjaya soon. Gdb in fast line.


skl6097
107 posts

Posted by skl6097 > Nov 19, 2019 11:42 AM | Report Abuse

up too fast... not sure still good time to collect or not


paperplane
20308 posts

Posted by paperplane > Nov 19, 2019 11:51 AM | Report Abuse

wow! 0.50


VenFx
14017 posts

Posted by VenFx > Nov 19, 2019 5:09 PM | Report Abuse

Macam Harimau dah Pasang Sayap

Boleh terbang jauh


Callmejholow
213 posts

Posted by Callmejholow > Nov 20, 2019 9:34 AM | Report Abuse

wah wah wah.... still flying


paperplane
20308 posts

Posted by paperplane > Nov 20, 2019 1:55 PM | Report Abuse

fly to moon


jianeric16
130 posts

Posted by jianeric16 > Nov 20, 2019 6:46 PM | Report Abuse

Result out


shrobin
172 posts

Posted by shrobin > Nov 20, 2019 11:18 PM | Report Abuse

GDB’s valuation at one billion revenue

Lately, GDB’s MD Cheah’s comment on target of one billion revenue in 5 years prompted me to look at this feasibility.


It is interesting as it offer me a view to look at GDB’s possibility by 2024….


With GDB securing about RM953 million contracts in 2019 helps in this 2024 plan.


Conservatively, GDB should be able to do about RM450 revenue next year(2020)


Assuming 25% revenue growth yearly subsequently after 2020, the revenue will reach about RM1.1 billion by 2024.


If you look at Kerjaya’s 2018 revenue, it is about RM1.07 billion. The revenue for 2019 two quarters is about RM524 million.

So full year 2019 is likely to be about one billion as well….


As of today Kerjaya’s share price is 1.31 with a share base of 1,241 mil shares. GDB’s is 625 mil shares….

So, roughly Kerjaya’s share base is double that of GDB…


If we reduce Kerjaya’s share base by half(about same with GDB), its share price should be 2x1.31= 2.62….


So if GDB can reach one billion by 2024, its share price should be closed to RM2.62


For margin of safety, you can take a discount to say RM2.00. If GDB current price is 50 sen, so potentially, there is

still 4 times upside…


Note: The assumption is GDB can reach one billion revenue by 2024


skl6097
107 posts

Posted by skl6097 > Nov 21, 2019 9:21 AM | Report Abuse

Kerjaya - market cap is around RM1600 mil
1 year secure RM1200 mil new contract

Econpile - market cap is around RM1000 mil
1 year secure RM600mil new contract

GDB - market cap is around RM360mil
1 year secure RM900mil new contract


Lukesharewalker
5303 posts

Posted by Lukesharewalker > Nov 21, 2019 10:02 AM | Report Abuse

Fairly valued now. Pe 10 to 12


Superb99
4699 posts

Posted by Superb99 > Nov 21, 2019 10:09 AM | Report Abuse

bought some due to cheap sales


Superb99
4699 posts

Posted by Superb99 > Nov 21, 2019 1:38 PM | Report Abuse

looks like quite weak today


AtomicHabits
424 posts

Posted by AtomicHabits > Nov 21, 2019 6:15 PM | Report Abuse

Fairly valued base on current result & contract im hand, but does ot mean no more new contract in the future? Just another 1 or 2 contract will sure left the valution again.


Lukesharewalker
5303 posts

Posted by Lukesharewalker > Nov 21, 2019 8:03 PM | Report Abuse

Take time to materialize...


AtomicHabits
424 posts

Posted by AtomicHabits > Nov 21, 2019 10:04 PM | Report Abuse

You either belief the mgmt ability to secure more project as they demonstrate previously or u can wait for the announcement of new project to chase high for it.


shrobin
172 posts

Posted by shrobin > Nov 22, 2019 8:38 AM | Report Abuse

@Samtuckfatt....interesting comment....


shrobin
172 posts

Posted by shrobin > Nov 22, 2019 8:43 AM | Report Abuse

To see the value of a business few years ahead is a very difficult one ...but it is one that we must try very hard to figure out...


AtomicHabits
424 posts

Posted by AtomicHabits > Nov 22, 2019 3:28 PM | Report Abuse

Article on GDB, by Alex investment review.

http://xxscyehxx.blogspot.com/2019/11/gdb.html?m=1


popo92
557 posts

Posted by popo92 > Nov 24, 2019 12:19 AM | Report Abuse

shrobin, when we are trying value a business we do take considerations of our projected earnings visibility into. But we need to ask an important question, is it sustainable and reliable? Looking at kerjaya, they have been growing for almost consecutively 20 quarters with growing revenue as well. Their gross margin are around 20% with net margin 13%, and were way higher when they smaller. Now they still have 3.4billion order book visibility and proven for years to get a 1.6billion today. Looking at Gdb, they still have not proven its sustainability in earnings to get your 1.25billion valuation. There are too many assumptions on whether they can get more orders and having good margins on these projects (which clearly they proven they don't). I do agree that this management have done a great efficiency on operating expenses, getting fair salary and get their real paid through dividend payout. *Many of their subcontractors are in top 30 shareholders too, and hence dividend is important to them. i do agree gdb is a niche construction players on high-rise, but looking at them competing prices to get contracts i doubt earnings will be sustainable through 2024 to get valuation of 1.25billion. Value using too much assumptions is dangerous, but i wish gdb keep growing.


jianeric16
130 posts

Posted by jianeric16 > Nov 24, 2019 9:55 AM | Report Abuse

Cakap macam tak cakap. Valuation is always based on assumption. The high PE show market agree with those assumption


shrobin
368 posts

Posted by shrobin > Nov 24, 2019 11:25 AM | Report Abuse

popo92....thanks for your inputs and comment.

Future valuation of a business is definitely a very difficult one!

I have taken some discount for GDB over Kerjaya on my assumption....for more safety, you can put on more discounts....generally buying lower is always safer for sure!

Investment instinct for everyone is different...just go according to your feel.

If you are a shareholder, you should be able to feel more after attending the AGM.

Kerjaya is good but they are already not so small...GDB is much smaller and my bet is
on them to grow into at least one billion revenue in a few years....I can be wrong but I still like to take on this bet. Right or wrong is my own decision...I can only kick myself if I am wrong....

Also, I like the two sen dividend they are paying. At least I get paid while I am waiting...

When I bought last year, the concern was not enough project secured....now is on the margins...really, it is anybody's guess....

Do self homework and follow up with whatever necessary actions to help your own decision. All that were written, be it from the analysts or whatever sources are for reference only...your own homework and decision is the most powerful....


AtomicHabits
424 posts

Posted by AtomicHabits > Nov 24, 2019 11:38 AM | Report Abuse

Thanks popo92, good analysis.


popo92
557 posts

Posted by popo92 > Nov 24, 2019 9:39 PM | Report Abuse

shrobin, congrats for holding since last year. your patience finally pay off now proving Gdb management have the ability to grab as much contract this year. For me, i started notice Gdb as i think their management is shareholder-oriented... but at around 29sen i didn't feel comfortable as their order book couldn't give me a clear enough visibility of future earnings. I didn't buy even after they get the contract from desapark city maybe because my bias thought told me its from retaining client. I only start buying my first batch when they announce a contract from kota kinabalu on nov 7, ended up paying much more premium but i still feel comfortable holding average at below 40sen according to current business situation. I would say within 2-4 years, gdb will be stronger high-rise players and perhaps getting into infrastructure player. Valuation wise i hope it could be a 400-500million gadang level, but i do know there's many challenges ahead. To order to get themselves into a billion contraction player, sustainable is still a big question. A billion revenue doesn't get them inside billion club, nor with many order books(like mrcb, order book is almost 7xtimes of their valuation given)... sustainability of earnings and strong balance sheet is necessity. (i expected in order for them to grow that big, corporate actions like right issue, pp should be done even giving less dividend). i actually do hope gdb can be rather picky choosing higher margins projects as niche as kerjaya too...


brendonyeap
1647 posts

Posted by brendonyeap > Nov 24, 2019 9:46 PM | Report Abuse

Buy as much as possible, one big news coming soon.


T800Terminator
1604 posts

Posted by T800Terminator > Nov 24, 2019 9:50 PM | Report Abuse

Hahaha you stuck at 0.53?


shrobin
368 posts

Posted by shrobin > Nov 24, 2019 10:32 PM | Report Abuse

@popo92....i do agree is not easy...

GDB MD Cheah on some two week ago mentioned about targeting the one billion revenue, that got me excited on the prospect....he mentioned about a more than 60 storeys project that he is targeting and is out for tender soon, value at about one billion...it is not something for sure but if it can be secured, it will definitely helps a lot in order book value that move one step nearer to the prospect...

In the coming May annual report, let us see if there are some interesting new guys that might appear in the top 30 list....judging by the buying volume lately, it is likely to see some changes to the top 30 list....

Glad to know that you have pick up some as well...Having a 30% dividend policy right at the start of IPO is no easy feat...I have great respect for it!

Cheah and Alexander together hold a combine shareholdings of 74%...they have more reasons than me to try harder....


shrobin
172 posts

Posted by shrobin > Nov 24, 2019 10:50 PM | Report Abuse

https://youtu.be/wQdaUyWSrR0

Dividend never lie....


Superb99
4699 posts

Posted by Superb99 > Nov 25, 2019 10:11 AM | Report Abuse

no harm to keep profit making company


hornbill
721 posts

Posted by hornbill > Nov 25, 2019 3:12 PM | Report Abuse

Since Hap seng award so many jobs to GDB make sense Hap Seng buy in GDB stake!!


shortinvestor77
4380 posts

Posted by shortinvestor77 > Nov 26, 2019 9:06 AM | Report Abuse

https://klse.i3investor.com/blogs/AmInvestResearch/239908.jsp


Tricolourbritishshor
26 posts

Posted by Tricolourbritishshor > Nov 26, 2019 9:41 PM | Report Abuse

with the current order book on hand , the revenue will be boosted by 100% compared with 2019FY , another Kerjaya in making ?


Tricolourbritishshor
26 posts

Posted by Tricolourbritishshor > Nov 26, 2019 9:42 PM | Report Abuse

I found this in klse screener there . I'm not sure how accurate is that .
This is just rough estimation .
current outstanding project

Aug 2017 commence AIRA residence 432M 36 months 12 M per month
Nov 2017 commence Menara Hapseng 313 M 24 months 12.5 M per month


Contracts won by GDB in FY
April 19 commence Trans resources 135 M 30 months 4.5 M per month
Dec 19 commence Cloudvest desapark 517M 37 months 13.7 M per month
Jan 20 commence KK Hyatt centric 213 M 22.5 months 9.4 M per month
Nov 19 commencement Bison Substructure 20.67M 21 months 0.9 M per month
Nov 19 commencement Hap seng Star 67.9M 15 months 4.5 M per month


performance of Q4 2017 to date is in keeping with the contract won .
Rough estimate for revenue based on the calculation
Q4 2019
Revenue 78M /- 4.5M, with average profit margin of 10%, 7.8M /- 0.45M


FY 2020 (different phase of project will have different recognition of profit and revenue, thus estimation will be calculated in annual basis.)
Revenue 500M /- 10M , with profit margin of 10% in average . 8 sen of EPS ,
At same PE , in end of FY 2020 , this stock will bring fair value of 80sen – Rm1 , assuming profit margin same as past performance , at PE 10-11. to consider safety margin, this stock will worth around 64 to 72 sen .

if the company continue to win contracts in 2020 , it will boost the profit further .

current order book is impressive. but company might take loan , due to contract assets.


ariehazimi
159 posts

Posted by ariehazimi > Nov 27, 2019 8:55 AM | Report Abuse

Baby shark dododo, when Mother shark.


briankyz
12 posts

Posted by briankyz > Nov 27, 2019 3:55 PM | Report Abuse

During the IPO listing, i was asked by someone from the management to buy and the BOSS said the price will break RM1 in few years time. Now i believe. Just buy and keep under your pillow.


jianeric16
130 posts

Posted by jianeric16 > Nov 27, 2019 6:25 PM | Report Abuse

Another contract


AtomicHabits
424 posts

Posted by AtomicHabits > Nov 27, 2019 7:20 PM | Report Abuse

OTHERS | https://www.klsescreener.com/v2/announcements/view/29148132

Contract from Hap seng again.


M3T0123
23 posts

Posted by M3T0123 > Nov 27, 2019 7:27 PM | Report Abuse

Gents, pls read it carefully ..it is changing from LOI to LOA..it was same being announced before


AtomicHabits
424 posts

Posted by AtomicHabits > Nov 27, 2019 8:45 PM | Report Abuse

Thks M3T0123, yes, from LOI to LOA.


Callmejholow
213 posts

Posted by Callmejholow > Nov 28, 2019 10:23 AM | Report Abuse

no movement today?


skl6097
107 posts

Posted by skl6097 > Nov 29, 2019 10:57 AM | Report Abuse

cant move up dy...


charlie82
350 posts

Posted by charlie82 > Nov 29, 2019 11:27 AM | Report Abuse

@tricolour, very good extrapolation and FYI

menara HS started 1/11/17 n ending 31/12/19 so duration is 26 months
bison substructure is 70% owned so revenue & profit 0.7x

4Q19 revenue streams likely to include those additional project revenue streams recently signed especially those with starting dates in Nov & Dec'19

cheers 888


Tricolourbritishshor
26 posts

Posted by Tricolourbritishshor > Nov 29, 2019 9:23 PM | Report Abuse

yeah charlie , with these projects on hand , the revenue is likely to be doubled up for fy 2020 . so another kerjaya in making ?


paperplane
20308 posts

Posted by paperplane > Dec 2, 2019 5:17 PM |

Post removed. Why?


Callmejholow
213 posts

Posted by Callmejholow > Dec 3, 2019 10:09 AM | Report Abuse

i heard theres another new job coming


WhiteWolf
47 posts

Posted by WhiteWolf > Dec 3, 2019 4:58 PM | Report Abuse

If that is true, then very good news for GDB. Now is to see if they can maintain their standards with the influx of so many new projects at the same time.

Anyone have any news of Menara Hap Seng progress? They only got 20+ more days for them to maintain their reputation of "finishing before deadline" industry standard


M3T0123
23 posts

Posted by M3T0123 > Dec 3, 2019 5:06 PM | Report Abuse

For Menara Hap Seng 3, looking at the site progress, they are still working on the lobby/one open area floor with ceiling works, seeing people perform inspection floor by floor. It might be ahead of schedule(maybe few days) or just in time management. Anyway, still confident...


AtomicHabits
424 posts

Posted by AtomicHabits > Dec 3, 2019 5:16 PM | Report Abuse

Very strong support at.. 46, any correction till. 46 just sapu.


M3T0123
23 posts

Posted by M3T0123 > Dec 3, 2019 5:21 PM | Report Abuse

haha..i don't really hope to see .46...lol


WhiteWolf
47 posts

Posted by WhiteWolf > Dec 3, 2019 10:12 PM | Report Abuse

I see, M3. Thank you for the insights. Hopefully they can be consistent and keep the reputation of early completion. Perception is everything, especially in this day and age.

Callmejholow, your tips memang boleh pakai, from past observation. I now looking forward to seeing the announcement. Don't let me down now haha

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