Highlights
KLSE: PETRONM (3042)       PETRON MALAYSIA REFINING & MARKETING BHD MAIN : Energy
Last Price Today's Change   Day's Range   Trading Volume
5.05   -0.04 (0.79%)  5.05 - 5.09  70,800
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Overview

Market Cap: 1,364 Million
NOSH: 270 Million
Avg Volume (4 weeks):76,619
4 Weeks Range:4.98 - 5.30
4 Weeks Price Volatility (%):
21.88%
52 Weeks Range:4.92 - 7.50
52 Weeks Price Volatility (%):
5.04%
Average Price Target: 5.49
Price Target Upside/Downside: +0.44

Financial Highlight

Latest Quarter | Ann. Date 30-Sep-2019 [#3]  |  21-Nov-2019
Next QR | Est. Ann. Date: 31-Dec-2019  |  21-Feb-2020
T4Q P/E | EY: 11.12  |  8.99%
T4Q DY | Payout %: 3.96%  |  44.04%
T4Q NAPS | P/NAPS: 6.5213  |  0.77
T4Q NP Margin | ROE: 1.07%  |  6.96%

Headlines

Date Subject
22-Nov-2019 【视频】Petron大马 末季净赚会更高
22-Nov-2019 PublicInvest Research Headlines - 22 Nov 2019
12-Nov-2019 PETRON大马能否趁低吸购?
04-Nov-2019 PublicInvest Research Headlines - 4 Nov 2019
24-Oct-2019 波德申卸油设施故障·PETRON大马恒源:采措施保供应
23-Oct-2019 Mplus Market Pulse - Still Sideways
07-Oct-2019 Petron - Refining Margins Recovery; U/G to NEUTRAL
26-Sep-2019 下跌股:Petron大马RM5.27支撑
23-Aug-2019 Mplus Market Pulse - 23 Aug 2019
05-Jun-2019 PETRON大马获注资4.17亿·提升炼油设施生产Euro5柴油
31-May-2019 Petron - Still Looking at Weaker Numbers Ahead; SELL
29-Apr-2019 Beneficiaries, losers of rallying oil prices
05-Apr-2019 PublicInvest Research Headlines - 5 Apr 2019
21-Mar-2019 Top 4 Reasons to Re-look Petron Malaysia (3042)
24-Feb-2019 下跌股:Petron大马RM6.29支撑
22-Feb-2019 Mplus Market Pulse - 22 Feb 2019
22-Feb-2019 Petron - 4Q18 Numbers Indicate Weakness
15-Feb-2019 上升股:Petron大马阻力RM7.40
12-Feb-2019 估值低廉‧中小股招财进宝
12-Feb-2019 Stocks On Radar - Petron Malaysia Refining & Marketing (3042)

Business Background

Petron Malaysia Refining & Marketing Bhd is a Malaysian oil company engaged in producing a wide range of petroleum products which include gasoline, diesel, liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) and aviation fuel.
Analyze this stock with MQ Trader system

  9 people like this.
 
Vulture123 It is strange that when I started to accumulate at 4.95 plus level, there were only sellers and limited buyers. It has since been inching up and currently against my “bottom fishing” strategy to average upwards. Fundamentally, this stock should be much higher from current level.
08/11/2019 10:49 AM
Philip Greta I don't think you have been to their AGM before to be honest. I always go through all financial reports, AGM transcripts and shareholders discussions before I comment. Those I don't have much interest in I rarely comment.

I repeat, is there any way for them to raise their revenues to 4 billion a quarter and increase margins without losing market share? Is it a business that can grow over it's peers? Or are we just buying something because it is cheap? The entire industry is cheap.

I prefer quality buying above all else, if I had to choose.

QL on the other hand, if you want to keep comparing has been growing revenues unlike anything seen in the simple chicken and egg industry before. I will take 6% margins any day for a yoy growth as spectacular as that.

>>>>>>

Posted by Choivo Capital > Nov 7, 2019 3:26 PM | Report Abuse

I don't think you actually understand the business or its history to be honest. Take a look at the accounts from 2013 to 2018 at least, and let me know what you think.
08/11/2019 12:08 PM
hock007 Their revenue highly depend on the oil price, not much meaning. Crack spread and the volume of petrol sold is the factors determined the profit
08/11/2019 12:46 PM
Choivo Capital "All of these questions tie into one simple answer. petronm has been doing below 3 billion in revenue a quarter since forever, and it is very very likely that this will continue. Petronm has been doing below 5% net profit margins a quarter since forever, and it is very very likely that this will continue. "

Are you sure you read the accounts etc? Last year Q2 and Q3 above 3bil. This year Q2 above 3 bil and i bet Q3 will be as well.

I'm not sure how you would make a factually incorrect statement like that if you have read the accounts.

And if you get the facts wrong, the probability of the "opinion" being wrong as well becomes much higher, as this is much more subjective.

In any event, ill just take your word for it. In that case, explain to me the fuel retailing industry in Malaysia and how its different with those globally.

This is key.

In any event, the revenue don't matter as much, the thing that matters is fuel sales volume. For the retail division at least. Have you seen the growth rates for fuel volume sold? Have you seen the market share trend for retail fuel in Malaysia for the last 5 years?

=====
Philip Greta I don't think you have been to their AGM before to be honest. I always go through all financial reports, AGM transcripts and shareholders discussions before I comment. Those I don't have much interest in I rarely comment.
08/11/2019 1:25 PM
Outliar I find great value in Phillip and Choivo's comments in the forum and particularly so in this topic. However, I can't help but feel that Phillip's analysis into each stock does not factor in the price the stock is being traded. Phillip justifies Petron's low PE with his reasons, right though as he may be. But what if Petron was trading at RM1? Phillip's questions about Petron's growth and ability to expand in an already saturated industry let alone its ability (or lack thereof) to differentiate itself from Shell and Petronas still rings true. In other words, the price of a stock is an immaterial consideration to Phillip and even if it is, Petron's low PE is justified given its comparable quality compared to others. My question to Phillip is if Petron was trading at RM1, would you buy the stock? I doubt it. Your reasons for justifying Petron to be selling at such a low PE still holds true, nothing changes.

Choivo on the other hand from what I have read loves Petron. And I feel this has alot to do with the price at which it is being traded at as compared to PetDag 20+ PE. Margin of Safety is important and at this price point, it's difficult to argue against Choivo. From my shallow understanding of the company, it's one of a few B2C companies on Bursa in an industry where it is being subsidised by the government for the most part. The refinery is an immaterial consideration as it earns most of its money from its stations. Most people including myself is indifferent about pumping in Petron or Shell etc.. and this is where Phillip comes from. Why invest in a company where its moat is questionable, its chances of usurping Shell and Petronas in terms of market share is doubtful, with little likelihood of increasing efficiency and profit/profit margins besides its strategy of increasing petrol stations every year? Im sure Choivo knows this, but paying 7/8 times earnings of about 200m a year is still worth the investment, the downside is limited, what can really go wrong?

Ultimately as I see it, its a Qualitative vs Quantitative assessment. That's not to say that Choivo doesnt do a qualitative assessment on Petron, Im sure he has. But the quantitative aspect of it plays a bigger part in Choivo's mind than Phillip's. In the end, it is the price at which you are willing to pay for a company. Phillip doesn't think its worth it even at 7 PE for the reasons aforesaid in his posts. Choivo thinks its an absolute bargain at 7 PE, 200m a year earned back in 7 years, the downside is extremely limited. After all, 2 rules in investing, 1 is not to lose money, 2 is not to forget rule 1. Who's to say who's right and who's wrong?

Just my 2 cents.
08/11/2019 2:51 PM
Vulture123 Interesting, wise and knowledgeable arguments in this forum. There will always be differing views and that applies even for Research Houses. Otherwise, the share price will not fluctuate. An old man like me like to invest based on “bottom fishing” strategy once I think there is limited downside to a stock and greater probability of upside in the short/medium or even long term ;-)
08/11/2019 3:28 PM
Choivo Capital The value of an investment is ultimately, all future cashflows discounted back to current value.

Low PE can be expensive, high PE or even loss making can be cheap.

Having said that, balance of probabilities. Chances higher that if you pay a low pe, you are getting it cheap, compared to if you were to pay a high one.

Case in point, i'm looking at ELKDESA (other than MBSB, its the most exp by quantitative) , MYNEWS as well.

And i also think companies like Mulpha etc may be expensive.

And if you buy the bottom of a cyclical co, chances are the PE then is high. And when you sell at the top of a cyclical co, PE is low.

I don't want to make any comments on Phillip, god knows we will probably end up arguing and wasting each others time.

I actually don't have much criticism when it comes to his picks, other than QL, and maybe Yinson at this price.

He does have alot of comments on mine though. I welcome any comments, especially criticism, but when you start by making broad statements that get the facts wrong, i can't help but think the criticism is not constructive.

A real masterpiece of his, is his article criticizing TIMECOM, it actually inspired me to buy more.
08/11/2019 4:05 PM
Philip Greta Hi outlier,

I totally agree: thus I post with my remark
"
Nothing wrong with investing in petronm. you just need to know what kind of business you are putting your hands into. dont expect 20PE or growing earnings or increased dividend for a long long time yet.
"

The main point I am trying to make is that the fuel service industry is very saturated ( similar to condo development construction industry).

Very hard to make money. Like I said, those who buy petronm based on last year results of crack spread and expecting it to be reoccurring and sustainable will be in for a rude Awakening.

As the market value increases, so will the share of petronas, shell and others. In fact, refinery wise, petronas will be taking a huge step forward next year compared to it's peers. Petronm will definitely make money, but so will pouring money in the fixed deposit.

I don't believe in buying petronm or any stock based on past performances. I buy it based on the quality of the revenue and earnings, and the possibility and feasibility of future growth expectations.

As young choivo so succinctly explained, he expects 200 million in a good year, 100 million in a normal and 50 million in a bad year.

My question is why invest in average companies at all?

Of course, you can question yinson results this year, ql and topglov results last year, and gkent results next year. I may be wrong, but so far my results are still ok for me.

Maybe it's just me, I much prefer a company with clear earnings and revenues coming in the future, and a well managed and resourceful one.

And speaking of shareholder value, how is petronm rewarding shareholders with share buybacks dividends?

I give a simple example, choivo is getting 4.5% for his margin collateralization. Very high, but understandable.

Using the same ideas, take for example GKENT. Today it is 1.02, paying a 6.42% dividend yield or 6.5 cents since last year. The management is doing a lot of share buybacks, it is cash positive and guaranteed earnings and revenue increase with lrt3 and mrt2 and water meter increase of 26 export territories. Management has guided to increased revenue by Q1 2020. If you took a million dollar loan, the dividend alone would have paid for the margin, as well as the constant buyback from the management. You are assured double revenues and earnings next year ( by Malaysia government claim for lrt3). Historically before changing of government their share price was 2+. It is a net cash company with a market leadership in water meter and a niche specially is railway automation and control( how many Malaysian companies can claim that?)

Choivo seems to think petronm can consistently do 3b every quarter and grow and grow, but he doesn't have a confident set of ideas how and why it could do so. How can he? When management itself has not guided towards growth but preaches safety and cost reductions instead of growth.

For me like you said I practice qualitative analysis. I will consider investment into petronm only if one of the following occur,

1. A change in CEO and hire vig knudstorp.
2. They become the first to have a biodiesel refinery and produce b20+ grade and Palm oil high grade biodisel product conversion for diesel pump station. ( If Europe has 50% diesel from bio sources, I'm sure it can be done in Malaysia).
3. They suddenly have a more efficient and cheap source of oil compared to petronas, Shell and friends.
4. They become the first supercharger compliant network in Malaysia. Not because this will earn money, but more because they are starting to look to grow the company instead of resting on laurels.
5. They somehow hit petronas level net profit margins quarterly. There are those who buy lctitan for the 5% np, and those who buy pchem for the 25% np. I prefer companies with either high earnings, or willing to sacrifice short term earnings for huge growth. Low earnings and low growth, not so much.
6. They start to fully embrace the concept of the fuel station as a mini 7-11, where customers buy more than just fuel. I loved that shell and petronas led the way with this, and others began to fall suit. Nothing like buying fuel and claiming the voucher for a bag of rice to build customer loyalty.
08/11/2019 4:37 PM
Vulture123 https://www.klsescreener.com/v2/news/view/599538
Good news for Malaysia Equity market next Monday :-)
08/11/2019 5:20 PM
Choivo Capital Statutory reserve requirement, not interest. Scare me like crazy when i first saw the number
08/11/2019 9:56 PM
Choivo Capital Phillip,

400m in a good year, 300 in a normal one, and 150-250 in a bad one. With 200m a year being basically fixed deposit earnings (retail earnings).

I too like a company with clear earnings and revenues coming in the future, and a well managed and resourceful one.

Maybe you were just talking about the refinery then, and not including the retail division.

Yes, you are correct, fuel retail industry is relatively saturated, but not so much so that Petronm cannot grow the business at high-ish single digits the last few years.

Are you by extension saying that the refinery business is not saturated? Or the Chicken Egg industry is not saturated, or the surimi business is not saturated?

===

Now i have margin at 4.5% (do note its barely used), lets say i use it. In exchange for the 4.5%, i am getting a company yielding me 13%, of which about 30% is paid out, with the remaining 70% reinvested at 10-20% returns. Sounds good to me.

===

On GKENT, i dont deny the management is fairly decent, but at that price, you are getting a water meter business at 16 times earnings (lets assume they are good at water meters). Not much of a deal to be honest, though when compared to QL, it may very well be a bargain.

Kidding aside, The key part here is how good is the construction division.

How good are they at their rail works etc. Is that company more than just a golfing buddy of najib? How do they compare against GAMUDA etc?

How badly will they get chopped on the MRT contracts?

Well, i don't see them getting any overseas rail projects, so we can at best think they are a jaguh kampung, except with GAMUDA around, i don't see them being even that.

Whether they will get chopped on the rail projects, i have no idea.

Does not mean its a bad buy, i was thinking about it for abit, but its by no means better than the petronm you so keenly deride.
08/11/2019 10:08 PM
Choivo Capital Phillip, before you comment more on Petronm, go and buy the PFI accounts from 2014 to 2018. Lets talk then.
08/11/2019 10:12 PM
Philip Greta I have already given my explanation on petronm and rce capital.i have attended the agm, read the industry trade journals and the financial reports. I highly doubt you will see much sustainable growth here. As you seem to be the expert on rce capital and petronm which was your biggest largest shareholding I believe you may have some confirmation bias on your rce and petronm.

It is fine to be confident on a stock that you own. But it is useless to just tell someone to look further into something without explanation and talk later.

I will just continue to monitor your performance with your rcecapital, hengyuan and petronm to see the quality of your investment strength.

I will stop commenting here again until the next QR results.
09/11/2019 8:04 AM
popo92 From qualitative analysis , of coz petron failed to meet almost all aspects. But when you look at quantitative side, I still think there are much risk for now to be honest. It is almost a gamble of whether there’s a better year ahead 400m, a normal year 300m-200m or a bad year 100m-negative. Unless you bet it right with 400m, there’s some chance to hit and run with some low p/e investors buying from you. Other than that, highly chances the market will still pay petron a low p/e for unsustainable growth. In my opinion, the safest time to punt petron is to buy when they are having a bad year, best is losing money (probably of unexpected crack spread from its refinery, there’s chance) and provided share prices are depressing. Manipulating fear and greed on this petron share price is the best chance you are looking at, but no petron is not in depressing mode now.
09/11/2019 12:52 PM
sheldon The way I look at it - so long as the co generates a profit and Petron reinvests a portion, it's value should increase.
11/11/2019 6:20 AM
Choivo Capital Popo, I don't trade. This is a long term investment for me.
13/11/2019 10:44 AM
popo92 Choivo, although i still don't feel now petron is in the right timing and cycle i do agree that your long term investment on petron (price around 5) can serve you well. Wish you lucks on reaping your fruits on petron one day.
13/11/2019 8:04 PM
Felicity If we compare between PDB and Petron, even though PDB can be expensive, Petron is way underpriced. Currently the market is giving a negative value to the refinery as the low crack spread pulled down the value of Petron. Should not be the case.
The revenue for Petron is about 40% of PDB while the valuation is about 15x smaller.
Never like the government funds supporting these companies like PDB but still Petron is underpriced.
14/11/2019 5:15 PM
benlim https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-11-13/struggling-asian-refiners-to-get-a-diesel-demand-boost-in-2020
14/11/2019 8:05 PM
john0909 petron corp only posted P1bil net income only... therefore dont expect any outstanding result for q3 2019...
15/11/2019 9:28 AM
Outliar @felicity

What do you think the fair value of Petron is?
15/11/2019 12:49 PM
Felicity I think it is more than RM10 stock. Market cap should be at least RM3 b
15/11/2019 5:43 PM
untong I am hoping when PETRONM can stop spending on capex or at least some rest
20sen div for 5.2 DY is 3.85%,@20% payout only
last 10 years their highest payout is only 38%, i am hoping the days they can get their div payout to 50%, then the DY could reach 7%~so at current price it is a good entry haha

few good things i noticed;
recent quarter (ended June 2019) they had paid off all their borrowings (with help cash received from government subsidies), not sure when they stop spending cash for acquisition of PPE (Jan-June about 257mil spent)
Crack spread is climbing up since Jan 2019~~
16/11/2019 2:41 PM
sheldon Agreed untong - it should pay much more dividends in proportion with its earnings. Earnings are all huffing & puffing, which can be manufactured by any decent accountant.

Being able to convert it to cash dividends is the real deal!
19/11/2019 7:35 AM
untong crack spread increase 10% today, PETRONM price drop 2% today hmm
price getting attractive

https://www.tradingview.com/symbols/NYMEX-D1N1%21/
20/11/2019 4:16 PM
Choivo Capital Why pay it out as dividend if they can reinvest it at a high rate of return? Having said that, i do acknowledge that the reinvestment of most companies is actually shit.

Having said that, petronm capex is not for fun or waste. They actually need to incur that amount to upgrade and meet compliance.
20/11/2019 7:23 PM
Loh Kok Wai W 如果老马下台这只股就完蛋。
20/11/2019 8:09 PM
untong I view it as "forced to" reinvest just to comply. Unless they will see higher margin after the refinery upgrade. Unless most of it are spent on more retail stations opening.

Hving said that i take back my words on little revenue growth on PETRONM. Currently their retail station market share is 21-22%, i see there is some room of growth, maybe will get to 30% market share, in 5 years time hopefully,this is the most important figure i monitor every year.
21/11/2019 1:52 PM
Choivo Capital Well, if there is one thing i'm bad at, its definitely quarter predictions haha.

Would be nice to see plant utilization rate this q versus the last.
21/11/2019 5:17 PM
Outliar Hmm, the 200m a year fixed deposit earnings retail + refinery might not materialize after all. Cash flow still seems pretty good though?
21/11/2019 5:26 PM
Choivo Capital I'm fairly certain the retail division did well. The question is how heavy was the stock holding loss.

Retail is about 400m gross profit, before allocating other operating cost, so it may not be 200 flat.

See lah, no idea, not enough information.
21/11/2019 6:54 PM
john0909 what is the positive and negative based on this quarter report?
21/11/2019 8:27 PM
sheldon A Loss : 0
B 0 - 50m - 2 (Sheldon, john 0909)
C 51 - 100m : 2.5 (hock007, damiantreez, Chiovo Capital)
D - > 100m 0.5 (Chiovo Capital)

Looks like John 0909 & I are spot on
21/11/2019 10:17 PM
hock007 the quarter report seem not bad, with 3 weeks of maintenance it still manage to come out net profit result. remember last year quarter end result making 25m loss
21/11/2019 10:21 PM
supersaiyan3 I bought Petronm because I heard Petron's dispatch unit can use 3 people compare to Petronas' 60 people. You can't go wrong with low cost in this business environment.

Also, their new station percentage is the highest.

Buy more and hold. Its a long term game.

I think QL will be good though, last year they kena disease also, I heard 3 houses gone (compare to LH's 7 houses * 0.5). You can see the panic sale from the bosses last year. Now on should be good. Moreover, CPO rises little.
21/11/2019 10:53 PM
supersaiyan3 Phillip,

1. Why are investors only willing to pay 6.24 PE for petronm? This is a very interesting question indeed. the next few questions are followups that will be very pertinent.

I think the main reason is dragged down by HengYuan, the Chinese will drain HY and not Petronm. Then its the crack spread.

1a. What is the possibility of Petronm increasing their profit margins above 5%? If they could do it, how would they do it and would it be feasible? (this includes things like increasing efficiency, buying organically integrated businesses and investing in new products or systems that competitors are unable to have access to)

In fact Petronm is very efficient, cost structure is much lower then Shell and PETRONAS. PETRONAS spent few hundred thousand and down 4 -6 months just to make the logo black, totally unnecessary.

1b. What is the possibility of users to choose petronm above other competitors like petronas, shell etc even if the prices were fixed nationwide.

Petronm has the most effective reward program. You can get 1.5% discount using SMILE.

1c. what is petronm gameplan to hit 4 billion a quarter? do they have enough resources (without cutting the 3% dividend), and is it likely that they will do so?

Well they expand the fastest in terms of new store opening.

1d. was 2017 an anomaly with the crack spread or is it something that can repeated sustainably?

It will repeat 2-3 years later. Then I will sell RM10 again.
21/11/2019 11:02 PM
supersaiyan3 The short fall of petronm are:

The pump is the slowest.
It has the lowest number of workers.
The image is old and cheap.
Very low / none advertisement.
....
21/11/2019 11:12 PM
Choivo Capital The pump is the slowest.
- I don't know bout you guys, but i follow the old wives tale of pumping at the slowest speed to ensure i get as much fuel as possible.

It has the lowest number of workers.
-Only when i pump at petron, do the workers offer to wipe my windscreen, and its close to every time.

The image is old and cheap.
- This one is a matter of opinion i suppose. I think it looks very vibrant. Shell, BHP and Caltex looks very old. Petronas also to an extent.

Very low / none advertisement.
- Petrol stations don't need much ads or any tbh, its sheer existence is an ad, id rather their advertising money going towards opening more stations. But i think they do market their synthetics etc quite well, for a petrol station company at least.
22/11/2019 9:01 AM
Panorama1 Cash flow is good as Q3 affected by various factors as highlighted in the QR3. Q4 2019 expected to be much better that Q4 2018. Trust Your Intuition as Value Buy at current price level of 5 before it head towards 6 level.
22/11/2019 9:38 AM
sheldon I make sure & I tell my kids as well that every time we need fuel go to Petron. (When I held Digi shares, I switched my entire family from Maxis to Digi).

I think the unexplored potential of Petron stations is the basic groceries. May be the management feels that it's too much of an effort for some loose change but Petdag considers it as a significant source of income. Besides the straight forward income, the grocery and petrol pump complement each other.
22/11/2019 9:58 AM
untong Bought some @ 5.01, avg cost @ 5.9, to make it above FD rate div yield
3.3% at 20sen/share @ 20% payout (60mil payout)

Dividend should be more than achievable given 300m+ net cash level and 9months operating cash flow of 265 mil before working capital changes, despite spending 300m+ for PPE 9months period.

Haha no point predicting quarters profit as there are too many moving parts. I just looking at sales volume, cash level and PPE spending. For annual i will look at retail market shares.

Next year the PPE spending should be lesser i guess. See this
https://www.theedgemarkets.com/article/petron-awards-us132m-diesel-refining-plant-job-south-korean-petrochemical-firm

Somehow PETRONM is similar to AIRASIA; 20% net operaing profit dividend payout, heavy capex, cyclical.
22/11/2019 3:09 PM
Panorama1 Believe me ... Trust My Intuition. Those who buy in now at current 5 level will reap the good rewards in due course :-)
22/11/2019 5:08 PM
EatCoconutCanWin got imparment loss for this quarter?
22/11/2019 5:09 PM
Panorama1 I am a contrarian investor. I will Buy When There's Blood In The Streets :-) Crisis = Opportunities
24/11/2019 10:30 PM
TheContrarian I am the real contrarian, hahaha.
24/11/2019 11:58 PM
KassimBaba7 Ill be buying back soon - but need to park cash elsewhere - good luck with the market for the time being. Hope I don't miss the boat.. we got 3months to the next quarter.
25/11/2019 7:50 PM
Shinnzaii Aiyo...gov decide to go up one or two sen for RON95...let see it will U turn or not...congratulation retail...hehe
27/11/2019 4:30 PM
Panorama1 Refining margin looking good. Buy whilst sentiment is poor and price is Low.
03/12/2019 9:59 AM
Equityengineer Shook up at closing
04/12/2019 9:42 PM
Panorama1 Happily accumulating :-) Last Call ... Watch It Move.
05/12/2019 8:11 AM


 

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